Heavy rain in the year's first half has resulted in a crop shortage of Indian cloves for the second year. Next year, the new crop cycle could move the crop upwards by as much as 50% compared to this year, which saw a production of 10 KMT.

Prices

Prices are firm at US$ 8,850/MT, a 4.4% YoY increase, and are likely to stay at a high level. Prices slowly decreased by (7.4)% YoY, now at US$ 7,800/MT.

Current Scenario

Exporters from Indonesia are looking for new sources as the domestic supply of is insufficient to cover demand. The Indian market will also be busy before the upcoming winter and festival season.

Future Scenario

New arrivals are estimated at 13 KMT, with 1.5 KMT carryover stock. This is down from -15 KMT last year. The cyclone that hit Madagascar in February resulted in a loss of trees and delayed market arrivals until early November.

Conclusion

The harvest in the Comoros and Tanzania is late this year. Crops of 4 KMT (Comoros) and 3KMT (Tanzania) are expected. Freight costs have decreased for all origins, reducing shipping costs by $200-300 per MT.

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