Average Crop Yield Expected From the Harvest in EU Countries This Season
The yield forecast for most crops in the EU this season remains at or just above the 5-year average, according to the latest report from the European Crop Yield Forecasting Centre (MARS), released at the end of July.
Total EU cereal yields this season could reach 5.46 t/ha, which is in line with the average of the last 5 years. Wheat yields are also expected to be in line with the multi-year average at 5.59 t/ha.
Above average cereal yields are expected in Ireland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Yields around the average of the last 5 years are expected in France, the Benelux countries, Germany, Hungary and Italy. Below-average cereal yields are expected in Spain and Portugal, Denmark, Sweden and the Baltic countries.
MARS analysts estimate that total barley yields in EU countries could be 3% below the 5-year average at 4.74 t/ha. Spring barley yields are likely to fall significantly (-14%) to just 3.62 t/ha. The overall barley yield will therefore be saved by a 2% increase in winter barley yields of 5.91 t/ha.
The downward revision of the spring barley forecast is mainly due to the poorer yield prospects in Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic countries, as the negative effects of drought are being felt throughout this region. Higher spring barley yields this season are expected in Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary.
In the EU, yields of corn (+1%, 7.53 t/ha), rye (+4%, 4.12 t/ha), triticale (+2%, 4.29 t/ha), soybean (+4%, 2.86 t/ha), rapeseed (+3%, 3.2 t/ha) are expected to be slightly higher than the 5-year average this year.
However, the outlook for sunflower yields is less optimistic, with a -5% decrease (to 2.12 t/ha) expected compared to the 5-year average, mainly due to a deterioration in yields in Romania, the main sunflower producing country in the EU.
Due to droughts in all three Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - yields for all major crops are forecast to be below the 5-year average this season.
The southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Italy have been affected by severe heat waves, which have damaged flowering summer crops by causing sterility of the flowers with irreversible effects on future yields.
Meanwhile, in the western parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary, excess rainfall hampered the harvest and affected the quality of the grain.
Source: Manoukis
Total EU cereal yields this season could reach 5.46 t/ha, which is in line with the average of the last 5 years. Wheat yields are also expected to be in line with the multi-year average at 5.59 t/ha.
Above average cereal yields are expected in Ireland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece. Yields around the average of the last 5 years are expected in France, the Benelux countries, Germany, Hungary and Italy. Below-average cereal yields are expected in Spain and Portugal, Denmark, Sweden and the Baltic countries.
MARS analysts estimate that total barley yields in EU countries could be 3% below the 5-year average at 4.74 t/ha. Spring barley yields are likely to fall significantly (-14%) to just 3.62 t/ha. The overall barley yield will therefore be saved by a 2% increase in winter barley yields of 5.91 t/ha.
The downward revision of the spring barley forecast is mainly due to the poorer yield prospects in Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic countries, as the negative effects of drought are being felt throughout this region. Higher spring barley yields this season are expected in Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary.
In the EU, yields of corn (+1%, 7.53 t/ha), rye (+4%, 4.12 t/ha), triticale (+2%, 4.29 t/ha), soybean (+4%, 2.86 t/ha), rapeseed (+3%, 3.2 t/ha) are expected to be slightly higher than the 5-year average this year.
However, the outlook for sunflower yields is less optimistic, with a -5% decrease (to 2.12 t/ha) expected compared to the 5-year average, mainly due to a deterioration in yields in Romania, the main sunflower producing country in the EU.
Drier than normal conditions
According to MARS analysts, the main reason for the deterioration in yield expectations is the apparent drier than normal conditions lasting more than one month in large parts of Western and Central Europe, as well as in the northern parts of the continent and in eastern Romania.Due to droughts in all three Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - yields for all major crops are forecast to be below the 5-year average this season.
The southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula and northern Italy have been affected by severe heat waves, which have damaged flowering summer crops by causing sterility of the flowers with irreversible effects on future yields.
Meanwhile, in the western parts of Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary, excess rainfall hampered the harvest and affected the quality of the grain.
Source: Manoukis