In the sprawling fields of Gujarat, the aroma of good news wafts through the air as fennel farmers anticipate a bumper crop. Fennel, a fragrant spice, witnesses a substantial increase in sowing, paving the way for a potential price rise.

Sowing Season Forecasts: An Optimistic Outlook For Fennel

Gujarat, leading the charge as the largest producer of fennel in India, reveals promising data. The sowing area for fennel has expanded to a whopping 68,000 hectares, a remarkable surge from the 29,000 hectares recorded last year. Rajasthan, trailing Gujarat in fennel production, mirrors the enthusiasm with a notable increase in Neemuch and Merta, signalling a potential doubling of fennel cultivation compared to the previous year.

While recent rains have slightly shadowed fennel cultivation in Abu Road, the damage hovers around a manageable 2 to 5 percent. This setback is unlikely to disrupt the overall positive trend in fennel production.

Reflecting on the Past Export-Driven Boom and the Fallout

Last year, the fennel market witnessed a spectacular boom, driven by minimal carry-forward stocks and robust domestic and export demands. The total export volume reached 22,500 tonnes, significantly increasing in April and May. This export-driven surge led to a spike in fennel prices within a month.

India faced a challenge in exports when new fennel from Egypt flooded the market in July. The comparatively lower prices of Egyptian fennel led to a shift in preferences, impacting Indian exports to countries like China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Dubai. India, in turn, imported fennel from Egypt, adding complexity to the market trends.

Future Projections: Export Potential and Price Trend

As Egypt concludes its fennel crop, India emerges as the primary global supplier. With an estimated 0.150 to 0.160 million bags required in the next four months, the demand is poised to keep prices steady. November witnessed an estimated export of 2000 to 2200 tonnes; if this trend continues in December, a potential increase is on the horizon.

Despite optimistic market conditions, forward trading poses risks, with speculators eyeing March delivery at $1,02 to $1,08 per kg. However, the weather patterns for the next three months remain pivotal, adding an element of risk to forward trading.

This report unveils a promising season of growth in the fragrant fields of fennel. The surge in cultivation, especially in Gujarat, sets the stage for potential price hikes. In global trade, the resilience of the fennel market shines through. While optimism abounds, cautious attention to weather patterns and trade complications is vital for fennel.