Indian Government notification about lifting the duty for yellow peas import to India has created unprecedented price increases of yellow peas in Ukraine.

Thus, the demand from India was so big and intense, that it caused some panic in the Ukrainian market, which wasn't ready for this. With reduced peas harvest in 2023 (only 250 thousand metric tons) and ongoing logistics problems, Ukrainian farmers took this notification as the only chance to sell their crop with good profit.

Unprecedented price increases

Since Monday, December 11th, the yellow peas market has been extremely active but not effective. Exporters, searching for the upper high level,  increased their prices to 480-500 USD/T (438-456 EUR/T) with delivery to Indian ports. This price was actually 100-120 USD/T higher compared with the previous week's prices. Of course, such an increase couldn't be welcomed by traders and Indian buyers, who showed huge demand, but at the same time offered their levels. Traders were ready to give 420-430 USD/T CFR (383-393 EUR/T) and end buyers - 450-460 USD/T CFR (411-420 EUR/T) India ports.

350.000 mt from Canada, USA, Russia

It is worth clarifying that the prices above are for yellow peas shipped in containers. Meanwhile, India has already bought 350,000 mts by vessels from Canada, USA and Russia in the past 7 days. And all the cargoes have to reach India by 31st March. This is the final date when cargo can be accepted without import duty. So all the shipments have to be arranged middle of February or earlier. These factors will have the main influence on the market next week. We fixed container shipment deals to be done at 450 USD/T CFR Nhava Sheva (411 EUR/T). But it is clear already, that next week farmers and exporters will have to reduce their appetites if they want to take advantage of this Indian "import window".