Crop receipts in the walnut market as of December 31 are 782,122 tons. The NASS estimate was 760,000 tons, the crop is now well above the estimate. Let's look at the situation in the market after the unexpected crop receipt.

Negative: The crop receipts soared past the revised NASS estimate, meaning more walnuts to sell than expected. The receipts are also considerably higher than last year (the 2022 crop was approx. 752,000 tons). Kernel sales have been spotty this year, as slowly decreasing prices have not given buyers much confidence. Prices have reflected the lower kernel shipments. The supplier expects that, much like inshell, lower prices will attract more demand.

Positive: On the good side for suppliers, inshell shipments have been robust. This is no surprise since the end of November we witnessed some of the lowest inshell prices of the season, and as a result, we have strong shipments now. Smart buyers took advantage of the low prices. For December, Italy shipped over 9 million lbs., Türkiye 20 million lbs., and India over 6 million lbs. Dubai, North Africa had more modest shipments due to heavy purchasing from China. As inshell stocks decrease, we will see prices firm as the season progresses.

Walnut shipments

The December 2023 Walnut inshell shipments were +65.5 million lbs. 2023 versus 38.8 million lbs. in December 2022, for an increase of 40%.

The December 2023 Walnut kernel shipments were 46.66 million lbs. in 2023 versus 45.34 million lbs. in December 2022, for an increase of just under 3%.

Key Markets-Shipments to date, 2023 vs 2022

Overall

December shipment report was really strong! Looks like the industry is already over 60% sold for the season and over 40% shipped. The total crop ended up around 800,000 tons which is a record. If the current demand continues for a couple more months and if you factor in we have another 30 million that was just awarded to walnuts from USDA, this crop will be sold out sooner than buyers expect.

Source: Summit Premium Tree Nuts