Walnut Market Surges: Record Shipments, Crop Exceeds Expectations, and Usda Purchase Boosts Prices
Inshell shipments of walnuts in January 2024 recorded a remarkable surge, reaching 48.868 million lbs compared to 25.9 million lbs in January 2023, marking a substantial increase of +43.4%. Similarly, walnut kernel shipments for the same period rose to 57.66 million lbs, up from 48.18 million lbs in January 2024, representing a notable increase of +16.5%.
These statistics underscore a robust performance in the walnut industry, with both inshell and kernel shipments demonstrating substantial growth compared to previous periods.
A smaller than anticipated Chinese crop, coupled with low prices, has propelled inshell shipments to rise across major markets. Notably, January marked a significant milestone as the UAE surpassed previous year's inshell shipment figures for the same month. The market saw a notable upswing following the low prices observed at the end of November, driving robust shipments to nearly all export destinations. Despite a gradual increase in prices throughout December, demand remained strong, as evidenced by the substantial quantities sold by Californian shippers in January.
In further positive news, the USDA's recent announcement of purchasing approximately 450 loads of Combo material over the coming months has provided a welcomed boost to walnut processors. While this procurement falls short of last year's figures, it still offers a vital outlet for Combo kernels this spring. Exceptional quality this season is anticipated to be met predominantly through the USDA purchase, with prices for CHP witnessing a notable increase from 1.35 FAS to over 1.50 FAS in recent weeks.
However, amidst these positive developments, concerns have arisen regarding the late adjustment in the crop size. The crop size, initially estimated at 782,122 tons on December 31, has now been finalized at 820,000 tons. This discrepancy raises questions regarding the reliability of information on the California Walnut Crop, eroding buyer trust. The initial NASS estimate of 780,000 tons, later amended to 760,000 tons, attributed to additional acreage being pulled out. Yet, the subsequent adjustment during the peak purchasing season leaves buyers questioning the industry's transparency and reliability of information.
These developments highlight both the strengths and challenges within the walnut industry, emphasizing the need for greater transparency and reliability in crop reporting processes.
Source: Summit Premium Tree Nuts
Crop Exceeds Expectations
The final crop receipts for the 2023 crop season unveiled a total of 820,966 tons. This figure exceeded the initial estimate provided by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), which projected 760,000 tons. The actual crop size thus surpassed expectations by +7.5%.These statistics underscore a robust performance in the walnut industry, with both inshell and kernel shipments demonstrating substantial growth compared to previous periods.
Market Analysis: Walnut Industry Insights
The recent market trends have presented a promising outlook for walnut shippers, with several key factors contributing to the industry's strength.A smaller than anticipated Chinese crop, coupled with low prices, has propelled inshell shipments to rise across major markets. Notably, January marked a significant milestone as the UAE surpassed previous year's inshell shipment figures for the same month. The market saw a notable upswing following the low prices observed at the end of November, driving robust shipments to nearly all export destinations. Despite a gradual increase in prices throughout December, demand remained strong, as evidenced by the substantial quantities sold by Californian shippers in January.
In further positive news, the USDA's recent announcement of purchasing approximately 450 loads of Combo material over the coming months has provided a welcomed boost to walnut processors. While this procurement falls short of last year's figures, it still offers a vital outlet for Combo kernels this spring. Exceptional quality this season is anticipated to be met predominantly through the USDA purchase, with prices for CHP witnessing a notable increase from 1.35 FAS to over 1.50 FAS in recent weeks.
However, amidst these positive developments, concerns have arisen regarding the late adjustment in the crop size. The crop size, initially estimated at 782,122 tons on December 31, has now been finalized at 820,000 tons. This discrepancy raises questions regarding the reliability of information on the California Walnut Crop, eroding buyer trust. The initial NASS estimate of 780,000 tons, later amended to 760,000 tons, attributed to additional acreage being pulled out. Yet, the subsequent adjustment during the peak purchasing season leaves buyers questioning the industry's transparency and reliability of information.
These developments highlight both the strengths and challenges within the walnut industry, emphasizing the need for greater transparency and reliability in crop reporting processes.
Source: Summit Premium Tree Nuts
For improved website design , harvest information , statistics , please subscribe CMBroker
