Anticipated Market Conditions
The big cardamom market is expected to maintain robust pricing in the near future. This is primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting domestic production in key Indian states during the 2023-24 season. Concurrently, a significant production drop in Nepal has escalated prices, making imports into India less economically viable.
Impact of International and Domestic Supply
Nepal, a major supplier of big cardamom to India, along with a smaller contribution from Bhutan, has seen a downturn in production. This decrease has led to a notable price surge. In India, major producers like Sikkim, Meghalaya, and West Bengal are also facing challenges, further tightening the market.
Current Market Prices and Trends
In the Delhi wholesale market, prices for Jhundiwali and Scissorhands varieties have been recorded at USD 15,24 to 15,36 per kg. This reflects a steady market with prices slightly higher than the cost of imports from Nepal, which stands at USD 16,32 to 16,44 per kg. The reluctance of businesses to import due to high costs and the weak domestic crop exacerbates the supply constraints.
Auction Insights and Future Expectations
Recent auctions in Sikkim have shown a wide price range for big cardamom, from USD 12,60 to 17,56 per kg, indicating market volatility and varying quality grades. The decline in Nepal's cardamom stock and the strategic withholding of goods by producers and stockists in anticipation of higher prices suggest a likely uptrend in the market.
Environmental Factors and Demand Forecast
The season has been marked by higher temperatures and lower rainfall in the production areas, coupled with increased pestilence, adversely affecting the crop yield. As demand continues to rise, these conditions are set to contribute to the strengthening of big cardamom prices in the market.
Conclusion: Market Outlook
Given the current scenario of reduced supply due to domestic and international production challenges and the anticipated increase in demand, the market for big cardamom is poised for strong pricing in the foreseeable future.
