Delayed Harvest Amid Favorable Conditions

Rains in key soybean-growing regions of Brazil are causing delays in the soybean harvest. However, these same rains are benefiting the development of second-crop corn, which is adding pressure on soybean quotes.

Harvest Progress:

As of March 28, soybeans have been harvested on 74% of Brazil's total area, slightly behind last year's pace of 76%. Meanwhile, first-crop corn has been collected on 43% of the area, with second-crop corn sown on 96.8% of the area.

Revised Production Estimates

Analysts in Brazil have revised down their soybean harvest estimates. Despite earlier forecasts of 160 million tons, the current estimate stands at 148.6 million tons. However, due to abundant rainfall in February and March, Agroconsult Agency has raised its forecast for soybean production in Brazil for 2023/24 to 156.5 million tons.

Market Outlook

Analysts suggest that the decrease in soybean prices may soon come to a halt, with the possibility of a recovery. The October-December rainfall deficit in certain regions, particularly in Mato Grosso, has impacted harvest prospects, but soybean production is rebounding in other areas like Rio Grande do Sul.

International Trends

In the US, soybean planting area is expected to increase from last year, but stocks have risen, contributing to lower exports. Similarly, soybean processing in the US has decreased slightly, adding to market pressures.

Price Movements

In response to these factors, May soybean futures in Chicago have fallen by 1.3% to $435.7 per ton in recent sessions. In Ukraine, soybean prices in ports remain low, while processors and exporters compete amidst fluctuating exchange rates.

As Brazil's soybean harvest nears completion, market dynamics are expected to shift, influencing global soybean prices in the coming weeks.