March Rains Boost California Almond Prospects

The almond industry in California experienced one of its wettest months in 14 years in March, with timely rains following the February bloom. The Sierra Mountains received substantial snowfall, ensuring water reserves for the year ahead. This bodes well for growers, as aquifers recharge, leading to robust water allocations.

2023/2024 Crop Year Status

The Almond Board of California released its February Position Report, marking the midpoint of the 2023/2024 crop year. Crop receipts indicate a decline in supply for the third consecutive year, with this year's supply estimated to reach around 2.458 billion pounds.

Demand and Shipments

Shipments in February reached 221.1 billion pounds, with domestic shipments up by 2.3% compared to last year, totaling 420 million pounds year-to-date. Export shipments, while down from last year, remain strong, comprising 162.3 million pounds. Total sales for February were 13% higher than the previous year, indicating active demand despite high prices.

Market Trends

February sales exceeded expectations, reflecting continued demand even at high price levels. With the bloom season over, California is expected to continue aggressive selling. Commitments for the 2023 crop year are down by 20% compared to last year, but uncommitted inventory remains consistent with a smaller crop expectation.

Bullish and Bearish Trends

Bullish trends include strong shipments through February and robust sales despite transit issues. However, concerns arise as February shipments lag behind last year's pace. Market prices have dropped recently, and the industry faces the challenge of balancing aggressive sales with the potential for a larger crop in the coming years.

Despite challenges, the almond market remains resilient, with strong demand both domestically and internationally. The industry continues to adapt to weather fluctuations and supply trends, ensuring stability amidst changing market conditions.