Overview: Current Landscape

As climate change intensifies, countries worldwide are grappling with extreme weather events, impacting agricultural production. Our latest sugar market report delves into the global sugar landscape, highlighting shifts in harvest yields and consumption patterns.

Weather Patterns and Market Trends

El Niño, which began in June 2023, continues to influence weather patterns, bringing warmer conditions to some regions and dry spells to others. India and Thailand have experienced reduced sugar production due to unseasonal weather, while Brazil remains a key global supplier, with over 47% market share. Dry weather forecasts in Brazil raise concerns for the upcoming cane development period and the 24/25 crop, potentially affecting global supply in 2025.

Production and Consumption Projections

Despite challenges, global beet sugar production is expected to rise to around 41 million tonnes, with cane production reaching 153 million tonnes for the 23/24 season. Total global sugar production is estimated to reach 194 million tonnes, up from 186 million tonnes in the previous season. However, rising global consumption is anticipated to result in a surplus of 5 million tonnes for 23/24.

EU Beet Sugar Market Dynamics

Duty-free imports of Ukrainian sugar are impacting the EU beet sugar market, leading to oversupply and falling prices. Recent protests by French and German farmers highlight concerns about unfair competition from countries like Ukraine. Despite high beet yields in the EU, lower sugar content and decreased consumption are expected for the 23/24 season. Overall estimates project EU beet sugar production at 16.4 million tonnes, down from 17 million tonnes in the previous season.

The global sugar market faces challenges from weather variability and trade dynamics. While Brazil emerges as a key player amidst production disruptions elsewhere, the EU grapples with oversupply and protests over import policies. As stakeholders navigate these complexities, market resilience and adaptation will be crucial in sustaining a balanced sugar market.