As expected, there were hardly any relevant incidents in the hazelnut market this week due to the public holidays in Türkiye. Most factories were closed for the entire week or were only staffed by emergency personnel at the beginning of the week. There were correspondingly few updates to the export price lists. Although there were no changes in commodity prices, there was some movement in exchange rates on the financial markets at the end of the week due to the inflation data from the USA and the ECB's interest rate decision, among other things, which should be reflected in the export price lists in the coming week.

In the coming weeks, all eyes will probably be on the behavior of the TMO. In line with most market participants' expectations, the first tender is likely to be issued this month. The interesting thing will be who will bid for what quantities and what the market leader's reaction will be.

Tenders and Biddings

As usual at this time of year, the first retail chains are now starting their tenders for the coming season. While many suppliers are still reluctant to take the risk, some are already bidding speculatively. From the few deals that have been concluded so far, it can be assumed that most are expecting a lower price level in the coming season. However, when asked about the starting price for raw produce for the new harvest, there is still silence, which shows that the deals are simply pure speculation. This is not unusual for the hazelnut market, but we feel that the tendency to speculate has increased slightly in recent years.

Apart from the expected reaction of the TMO, the next impulse for the market will be the publication of the harvest estimate at the INC in Vancouver on May 10. After that, we expect the market to pick up.

Bullet Points

• Commodity prices remain stable due to the public holidays in Türkiye.
• The movements in the exchange rate this week have not yet had an impact on the price lists due to the public holidays.
• The first deals regarding the 2024 harvest are slowly taking place.
• The market is now waiting for a possible reaction from the TMO