Drought Conditions Threaten Upcoming Coffee Harvest

India's coffee regions are facing prolonged dry spells that could significantly impact the 2024-25 coffee crop, which begins in October. Key coffee-producing districts in Karnataka—Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Hassan—and Kerala's Wayanad are experiencing less rainfall and higher temperatures than usual. Karnataka, responsible for over two-thirds of the nation's coffee, is particularly at risk.

Rainfall Deficiencies and Temperature Increases

From March 1 to April 18, the usual rainfall is about 2.79 inches (70.8 mm), but this year's figures are alarmingly lower. Kodagu received only 0.18 inches (4.6 mm), Wayanad got 0.49 inches (12.5 mm). Hassan saw a mere 0.07 inches (1.7 mm), and Chikkamagaluru had 0.93 inches (23.6 mm) of rain. Such deficiencies are likely to affect the crucial pre-monsoon showers needed for coffee flowering.

Coffee Growers' Concerns

Coffee growers, especially those cultivating robusta varieties, have enjoyed high prices this year due to a global price surge. They are now anxiously awaiting the pre-monsoon rains, essential for the 'blossom showers' that trigger coffee bud flowering. These are followed by 'backing showers,' vital for the crop's development. KG Rajeev, Chairman of the Karnataka Planters Association, highlighted the severe impact of high temperatures combined with no rainfall on the upcoming crop, with concerns over the white stem borer pest exacerbating issues for arabica plants.

Challenges in Pest Management and Irrigation

The white stem borer (WSB), a severe pest for arabica varieties, thrives in these dry, hot conditions. The lack of skilled labor to identify and manage WSB infestations worsens the situation. Forcing farmers to uproot affected plants. A. Nanda Belliappa, Chairman of the Codagu Planters Association, noted that sporadic pre-monsoon showers are insufficient, leaving about 60% of coffee areas vulnerable under the current conditions. Some growers with access to water resources have started irrigating their robusta crops to mitigate the dry spell.

Outlook for Arabica and Broader Crop Vulnerabilities

The situation looks particularly grim for arabica varieties, as noted by Bose Mandanna, a prominent grower in Suntikoppa. He reported that temperatures are 2-3 degrees higher than normal, compounding the drought's effects. This stress is weakening not only the coffee plants but also affecting associated crops like pepper vines.

Official Estimates and Forecasts

According to the Coffee Board of India, the total coffee production for the 2023-24 crop year is estimated at 374,000 tons, which includes 261,000 tons of robustas and 113,000 tons of arabicas. These figures underscore the potential decrease in production volumes if the drought persists without relief.

Growers and industry experts are calling for immediate action to support the coffee sector as it navigates these challenging climatic conditions. The next month is critical for assessing the full impact of the drought on both arabica and robusta crops, with hopes pinned on adequate rainfall to salvage the forthcoming harvest.