Market & Crop Update

As April unfolds, California welcomes abundant water reserves, promising a vibrant spring ahead. With temperatures returning to seasonal norms, hovering around the mid-70s in growing regions, almond orchards exhibit robust health. Recent industry estimates project the 2024/25 crop between 2.79 to 2.97 billion pounds, indicating a potentially fruitful harvest.

March shipments totaled 237 million pounds, marking a -15.7% decrease from the previous year but aligning with industry projections. Crop receipts are nearing completion at 2.437 billion pounds, slightly lower than last year. Despite this, the industry remains optimistic about the upcoming crop year, anticipating a turnaround in production.

Year-to-date, the industry has shipped 1.838 billion pounds, surpassing last year's shipments by +2.25%. While domestic shipments in March dipped by 6% compared to last year, export shipments faced a challenging comparison against the record-high March 2023 figures.

Sales & Commitments

Total sales for March reached 181.67 million pounds, a notable 26.5% increase from the previous year. Despite being the lowest sales month, the industry managed to exceed last year's figures. Commitments stand at 575.5 million pounds, down 11% from last year, reflecting a market characterized by cautious engagement.

Upcoming Milestones

• Acreage Estimate by LandIQ: April 24, 2024
• Nursery Report: April 25, 2024
• Subjective Estimate: May 10, 2024
• Position Report: May 14, 2024
• Objective Estimate: July 10, 2024

Almond Market Trends

Bullish Trends

• Shipments remain adequate, surpassing last year's figures by 2.25%.
• Predictions suggest a carry-out below 550 million pounds, signaling improved market conditions.
• The industry demonstrates proactive marketing strategies, selling future stocks more readily than in previous seasons.

Bearish Trends

• Despite favorable bloom conditions and optimistic forecasts, caution is advised to prevent oversupply.
• Recent price drops have prompted buyer hesitation, necessitating prudent inventory management.
• With current commitments trailing last year's figures, sustained aggressive selling is imperative for market stability.

As almond growers and traders navigate through the shifting market dynamics, proactive strategies and vigilant monitoring will be key to ensuring a balanced supply-demand landscape in the almond industry.