Current Market Price Fluctuations

Groundnut prices are experiencing minor fluctuations, yet the summer crop in Gujarat is anticipated to remain stable, according to Khushwant Jain. Despite varying demand from international markets like Malaysia and Indonesia, and declining supplies from southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, the price for groundnuts has recently increased by 2 - 3 Cents.

Availability Challenges and Market Responses

The local trade in Gujarat has been modest, with reduced availability of high-quality goods affecting the market dynamics. Currently, the best quality groundnuts, measured at 80-90 count. They are priced around USD 1,15 per kg. While some local quality varieties are slightly cheaper at USD 1,09 per kg. The market is slowly absorbing the new crop arrivals, leading to a gradual selling of existing stocks.

Projections for the Summer Crop

Expectations for this year’s summer crop in Gujarat are in line with last year's output, forecasted at around one lakh tonnes. In contrast, the groundnut production in Maharashtra and West Bengal is expected to be significantly higher than the previous year. Despite these positive projections, the onset of early rains could pose risks to the yield.

Market of Maharashtra And UP Regions

In Maharashtra, the new crop is expected to arrive in May but is expected to be small and primarily utilized locally due to high prices. Similarly, the groundnut crop from Uttar Pradesh's Mainpuri region is also due in June. And is projected to match last year's output. Notably, a larger quantity from Uttar Pradesh might be exported due to a lack of local demand for sesame oil.

In Uttar Pradesh, especially in the Mainpuri region, groundnut sowing has significantly increased. The conditions are favorable for a promising harvest this season, potentially doubling the production compared to last year. This increase is supported by a broader expansion of sowing activities across various regions. This is contributing to optimistic forecasts for the upcoming harvests.

Global Perspective: Tanzania and Mozambique’s Harvest

Internationally, Tanzania's new crop has entered the market, with shipments already underway, and Mozambique's harvest is set to begin in May. Despite global prices ranging from USD 1,150 to USD 1,160 per ton. High prices in Sudan have limited buyers to mostly Chinese importers.

While total groundnut exports from India have decreased, there has been an uptick in exports from southern regions, particularly from Chennai port. The current market in India shows little major activity. With large stocks still in place, which reduces the likelihood of significant imports, particularly from China.

Market Outlook and Future Predictions

Despite the relatively stable prices and minor fluctuations, the groundnut market is poised for a potential correction if demand spikes during the sowing season. The next wave of market shifts, whether bullish or bearish, is expected in July. However, with current trends and stockpiling by stockists at higher prices. Any significant rise in groundnut prices this year remains uncertain. The ongoing developments in both domestic and international markets will continue to shape the dynamics of the groundnut trade.