Global Coarse Grain Outlook

• Production Adjustments:According to the latest WASDE report, global coarse grain production for 2023/24 was revised downwards by 2.7 million tons to 1,507.4 million. This adjustment reflects reduced production, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks compared to the previous month. Notably, corn production outside the U.S. is forecasted to decrease, with declines expected in South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia, partially offset by increases in Argentina and Syria. South Africa's corn production decline is attributed to lower yield prospects, while in Mexico, it's based on expectations of reduced winter corn area. Ukraine and Russia have also experienced reductions in coarse grain production based on reported harvest results, whereas Argentina's forecast is raised due to higher expected area. Additionally, foreign barley production is down, mainly due to reductions in Iraq and Syria, partially offset by an increase in Australia.
• Trade Dynamics: Major global trade changes include higher corn exports for Ukraine and Argentina, while reductions are seen for South Africa and India. Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and South Korea, but raised for Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia. Barley exports have increased for Australia.
• Ending Stocks: Corn ending stocks outside the U.S. are lower, primarily reflecting a decline for Ukraine, partially offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn ending stocks stand at 319.6 million tons, down by 2.4 million.

Crop Prospects

• Southern Hemisphere: With global coarse grain stocks decreasing, attention shifts to crop prospects in the southern hemisphere. Concerns arise particularly in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea area due to tighter wheat supplies and persistent dryness in major growing areas. Weather models predict limited rainfall in Ukraine and southern Russia until at least May 7th, reminiscent of patterns seen in 2020. Soil moisture conditions are depleted, but timely rains in May and June could salvage yields.
• Northern Hemisphere:In the Midwestern U.S., rainfall patterns align with forecasts of a drier, warm summer. Historical data suggests a transition from El Nino to La Nina often results in below-average precipitation during the summer months. While this doesn't imply an imminent severe drought, there's an increased likelihood of below-trendline national corn yields.

Corn Export Sales

Market Performance: Corn export sales were robust this week, reaching 51.2 million bushels, surpassing trade expectations. Cumulative U.S. corn export commitments for the current marketing year now total 1.81 billion bushels, marking a 19.8% increase compared to last year's export sales commitments at this time.