Declining Production in Major States Boosts Nigella Seed Prices

The current season has seen a notable decrease in the arrival of new nigella seeds in mandis (markets). Due to reduced production in key producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Rajasthan. This scarcity, coupled with optimistic business sentiment. It has driven the prices of nigella seeds up by $0,18 to $0,24 per quintal in the past week. The market remains bullish.

Factors Influencing Current Production Trends

Last season, the acreage dedicated to nigella seed cultivation was reduced, as farmers did not receive a fair price for their crops. This decision has significantly impacted production levels this season, which are estimated to reach only 175,000 to 200,000 quintals, a stark contrast to the 400,000 to 500,000 quintals produced last year. Specifically, production in Madhya Pradesh has dropped from 200,000 quintals last year to just 75,000 to 80,000 quintals this year. Similarly, Gujarat and Rajasthan have seen their outputs decrease to 60,000-70,000 and 25,000-30,000 quintals, respectively, from much higher levels last year.

Price Trends Towards Upside

A week ago, nigella seeds cost about $2,22 per kg in Neemuch, Madhya Pradesh. In Delhi, the price ranged from $2,52 to $2,58 per kg. Since then, the prices have risen to around $2,46 in Neemuch. In Delhi, they have increased to between $2,70 and $2,76 per kg. The wedding season has temporarily slowed market arrivals. However, this trend might reverse soon, potentially reducing prices by $0,06 to $0,12. This price drop is likely to be short-lived. Prices are expected to rise again.

Future Outlook and Market Projections

Market analysts predict that nigella seed prices could reach $3,00 per kg soon, recalling the record prices of $3,60 to $3,84 per kg back in 2014-15. Currently, the estimated production for this season stands at about 200,000 quintals, with an additional stock of 100,000 quintals at production centers. This brings total availability to approximately 300,000 quintals, against an annual demand and export requirement of 400,000 quintals. With this supply-demand gap, 2024 is expected to be a favorable year for nigella seeds, promising substantial returns for growers and traders.