Recent developments in the global soybean market reveal a downward trend in prices driven by increased supplies from South America and favorable planting conditions in the US.

Pressure on Soybean Prices

May soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange experienced a decline of 1.3% to $420.9/t, with a weekly decrease of 2% and a monthly decrease of 3.5%. This trend is expected to exert pressure on export prices in Ukraine, signaling a reversal from previous growth.

Harvest Updates from South America

In Brazil, soybean harvesting progress stands at 90.5%, with analysts raising harvest forecasts due to favorable weather conditions. Despite a 10% decrease in soybean exports compared to April 2023, soybean meal exports have surged by 32.5%. Meanwhile, in Argentina, prolonged rains have delayed harvesting, but forthcoming dry weather is expected to accelerate operations.

US Planting Progress

In the US, 18% of the planned soybean planting area was sown by April 28, benefiting from warm weather and periodic precipitation.

Impact of SAF Feedstock Guidance

The release of the SAF feedstock guidance by the US President's Administration has intensified pressure on soybean prices, particularly soybean oil, leading to a 5.8% decline.

Market Dynamics in Ukraine

Ukrainian exporters have adjusted prices for GMO and non-GMO soybeans, reducing prices for GMO soybeans by $5-10/t and increasing prices for non-GMO soybeans. Processors, facing stiff competition from exporters, have raised prices for both GMO and non-GMO soybeans.

Challenges in the EU Market

Ukrainian soybean meal faces challenges in the EU market due to its comparatively high price, resulting in low export demand and increasing supply volumes.The global soybean market witnesses fluctuations driven by harvest progress, planting conditions, and regulatory developments. As stakeholders navigate through these dynamics, monitoring market trends and adjusting strategies accordingly will be crucial for informed decision-making.