Recent developments in Ukraine's corn market indicate a notable uptick in export prices fueled by heightened demand and active market dynamics. Traders are adjusting prices to accommodate increased sales activity while navigating various factors impacting the market.

Price Movement and Market Trends

Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine have risen by $3-4/t this week, reaching $162-166/t or UAH 7,200-7,400/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. This increase is attributed to robust April exports and significant sales anticipated for May. Traders are strategically adjusting prices by reducing margins and minimizing freight and port handling costs.

Farmer Behavior and Sales Outlook

With farmers primarily focused on sowing activities, sales have been restrained as they await potentially higher prices. However, an uptick in offers is expected within the coming week, potentially impacting market dynamics.

Export Projections and Market Dynamics

In the 2023/24 FY, Ukraine exported 22.9 million tons of corn, slightly below the USDA's projected 24.5 million tons. April saw exports of 4.14 million tons, with further exports of 2.5-3 million tons expected in May. However, traders may need to pay a premium to secure these volumes amidst market conditions.

Impact of External Factors

A recent 3.5% decrease in oil prices is anticipated to exert pressure on corn prices, particularly amidst increased offers from Argentina. Additionally, July corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange experienced fluctuations, rising by 0.9% to $177.5/t, driven by higher ethanol production.

US Planting and Production Trends

Ethanol production in the US saw an increase after a 3-week decline, reaching 987,000 barrels/day. Corn usage for ethanol production in March surged by 7.48% compared to the previous year, signaling robust demand. Planting progress in the US stands at 27% of planned acreage, with favorable weather conditions expected to accelerate planting.

Argentinian Harvest Forecast

In Argentina, corn harvesting progress stands at 20% of the area, with varying yield conditions reported across regions. Despite challenges such as diseases and pests impacting yield in certain areas, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its corn harvest forecast for 2023/24.

The surge in Ukraine's corn export prices reflects dynamic market conditions and evolving demand trends. As stakeholders navigate through these complexities, vigilance and adaptability remain essential for informed decision-making in the corn market landscape.