Recent updates from major macadamia growing regions provide insights into current market dynamics and pricing trends. Despite challenges such as weather delays and supply constraints, the macadamia market remains optimistic, buoyed by growing demand and strong international interest.

South Africa

Growers in South Africa anticipate a promising crop season, with projections of 90,000 metric tons despite a slight delay in harvesting. Increased in-shell contracts from China have led to a surge in prices, although medium-scale processors are cautious in forward contracts due to NIS availability concerns.

Australia

Heavy rainfall in April caused harvesting delays in Australia, but the projected crop of 56,000 metric tons remains robust. NIS offers are currently low as most volumes are contracted, contributing to higher prices compared to previous levels.

Kenya

Local processors in Kenya face challenges in collecting in-shell nuts from farmers, leading to higher purchasing costs for NIS. This has resulted in increased Kernel prices and limited availability in the market.

Outlook on Pricing

Macadamia prices continue to strengthen, driven by strong demand from key markets such as the U.S., China, and the EU. Factors such as low carry forward stock and limited Kernel availability due to increased in-shell contracts by China may contribute to further price increases in the coming months.

Bullish Trends

Growing demand in snacking and ingredient segments fuels market expansion.Concerns about El Niño effects highlight potential risks to production if high temperatures persist during low rainfall periods.

Bearish Trends

Expectations of a 12% increase in global macadamia crop in 2024 raise concerns about maintaining current price levels.High macadamia prices may lead to substitution with lower-priced nuts, impacting market dynamics.

The macadamia market faces a mix of opportunities and challenges, with demand growth and supply constraints influencing pricing trends. As stakeholders navigate through these dynamics, vigilance and strategic planning will be crucial for sustainable market participation and growth.