The speculative growth of wheat prices continues to dominate on world exchanges, driven by concerns about unfavorable weather conditions for crops. Despite generally good weather across most exporting countries, some regions are experiencing a deficit of precipitation, offset by lower temperatures.

Anticipation of USDA Crop Forecast to Alleviate Speculative Impact

Although better-than-last-year planting rates and rainfall forecasts are expected to mitigate the impact of speculative factors, traders await the USDA's 2024/25 crop forecast later this week for further insights.

Wheat Quotations Experience Steady Increase

Wheat quotations have risen consistently over the past three weeks, with increases ranging from 12.3% to 15.4%. Notably, July futures for new harvest wheat saw significant gains yesterday across various categories.

US Crop Conditions and Export Trends

According to the NASS USDA, winter wheat crops in the US have shown improvement in good or excellent condition compared to the previous week. However, export figures for wheat from the USA have decreased, contributing to ongoing market dynamics.

Global Production and Export Forecasts

Dry weather conditions in key wheat-producing regions like the Rostov, Krasnodar, and Stavropol regions have led to adjustments in production and export forecasts. Despite challenges, export figures from countries like Russia and Ukraine remain robust.

Growing Export Demand and Purchase Prices

Against the backdrop of rising world prices, export demand and purchase prices for wheat continue to increase in Ukraine. Farmers are actively selling stocks amid favorable weather conditions, contributing to market stability.

Outlook for Favorable Weather Conditions

Improved weather conditions expected in major wheat-producing regions such as the USA, Europe, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation will likely accelerate spring wheat sowing and positively impact crop development. This may exert pressure on new harvest quotations, which currently trade higher than prices of the old harvest.