Decline in 2023 Pumpkin Seed Production

In 2023, the pumpkin seed industry has faced a significant decline in production due to several critical factors. The total planting area was 2,050,000 Mu, yielding 280,000 tons, which represents a reduction of 20kg per Mu compared to previous years. The primary causes for this decrease include continuous high temperatures, repeated planting over the years, and insufficient water sources.

Promising Forecast for 2024

Looking ahead, the situation for 2024 appears more promising. The estimated planting area is projected to increase by 20% from 2023, reaching 2,470,000 Mu. This expansion excludes organic pumpkin seeds. The anticipated output for 2024 is 400,000 tons, comprising 294,000 tons of shine skin pumpkin seeds and 8,000 tons of GWS (green/white seeds).

Distribution of Planting Areas

The primary regions for planting in 2024 are:

• Xinjiang: 1,700,000 Mu
• Inner Mongolia: 430,000 Mu
• Gansu: 340,000 Mu

Varieties and Species

The planting species distribution for 2024 is as follows:

• Shine Skin Pumpkin Seeds: 74%
• Snow White Pumpkin Seeds: 12%
• Lady Nails Pumpkin Seeds: 12%GWS: 2%

Additionally, there is an expected 30% increase in the planting of organic pumpkin seeds.

Current Market Situation and Future Price Predictions

As of now, there are approximately 40,000 tons of stocks held by speculators and traders. These stakeholders are eager to sell their current stocks before the arrival of the new crop. However, due to the high costs associated with their inventory, they cannot significantly adjust prices.

Price Outlook for 2024 and 2025

When the new crop arrives in the market in September 2024, prices are expected to decline noticeably. This trend may continue into 2025, leading to further decreases in pumpkin seed prices.

Factors Influencing Future Prices

Several factors will determine whether prices will rise, remain stable, or fall in the coming months:

• Crop Yield and Quality: The actual yield and quality of the 2024 harvest will be critical in setting prices.
• Market Demand: Changes in domestic and international demand can significantly impact prices.
• Weather Conditions: Favorable weather can boost yields, potentially lowering prices, while adverse conditions could have the opposite effect.
• Inventory Levels: The release of current high-cost inventories before the new crop arrives will influence price adjustments.
• Expansion in Organic Planting: Increased planting of organic seeds could meet rising consumer demand, impacting overall market prices.

Monitoring these factors will be essential for predicting future price trends in the pumpkin seed market.