Weather Impact on Coffee Production

Coffee production and yield in India are anticipated to face significant challenges in the upcoming crop year. The primary factor affecting this outlook is adverse weather conditions. According to the local India office of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), low pre-monsoon rains during March to May will likely reduce production for the 2024-25 marketing season, starting in October. This projection comes amid strong export demand and expectations of increased domestic consumption.

Rising Temperatures and Pest Infestations

Karnataka Planters Association President KG Rajeev has highlighted that rising temperatures and a lack of pre-monsoon rains will severely impact the 2024-25 crop prospects. In addition to prolonged drought, the coffee crop is also threatened by an outbreak of white stem borer pests. This thrives in dry weather conditions.

Rainfall Deficits and Crop Health

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that Karnataka's major coffee-producing areas received excessive rainfall between January and February, followed by dry conditions with 44 percent less rainfall during the pre-monsoon period. This rainfall provided limited moisture to the crop. Additionally, high temperatures have heightened fears of significant losses among producers and those associated with the coffee industry. The prolonged drought and above-normal temperatures are expected to adversely affect the upcoming crop. With fruit setting declining significantly due to the lack of pre-monsoon rainfall in major coffee-producing areas.

Robusta and Arabica Production Outlook

Due to poor pre-monsoon rains and dry weather, the Robusta holding area is estimated to increase by 1 percent, while the yield is expected to decline by 2 percent to 1,230 kg per hectare. Despite these challenges, the Robusta crop yield remains well above the three-year and five-year averages. The USDA also noted that, despite the crop entering the 'on-year' of its biennial production cycle. India's Arabica area is expected to decline by 1 percent, with yields falling by 3 percent to 402 kg per hectare. Production for 2024-25 is estimated at 6 million bags of 60 kg each. With Arabica expected to grow by 10 percent and Robusta production estimated at 4.6 million bags (273,000 tonnes).