Harvest Growth Reflects Expanded Production Area and Improved Productivity

Brazilian coffee producers are on track to harvest 58.81 million processed bags of coffee in the first harvest stage of the 2024 season, marking a significant growth for the third consecutive year. This represents a 6.8% increase from last year and reflects a steady upward trend from 2022, when 55.07 million bags were harvested. The growth is attributed to expanded production areas and enhanced productivity.

Arabica Coffee Leads the Surge

The harvest of Arabica coffee, Brazil's main coffee variety, is expected to reach 42.11 million bags, an 8.2% increase from the previous season's 38.90 million bags. The National Supply Company (Conab) attributes this growth to a 2.2% increase in the area under production and improvements in productivity.

Regional Performance Highlights

• Minas Gerais: As the largest Arabica-producing state, Minas Gerais is projected to harvest 29.84 million bags, significantly contributing to the overall increase.
• Espírito Santo: The Conilon coffee harvest in Espírito Santo is expected to rise by 3.3%, supported by favorable weather conditions and technological advancements. The state is set to produce 16.17 million bags, making it a key contributor to Brazil's second-largest Conilon harvest on record.

Impact of Climate and Technology on Conilon Production

Despite a slight reduction in planting areas, Conab forecasts a 3.3% increase in Conilon coffee production, attributed to better climate conditions and technological improvements, particularly in Espírito Santo. The state's improved productivity contrasts with Rondônia, where Conilon production is expected to decline by 10.2% to 2.73 million bags due to less favorable weather and reduced planting areas aimed at renewing crops.

Overall Production Area Expansion

In 2024, the total area dedicated to coffee cultivation in Brazil, including both Arabica and Conilon varieties, is expected to increase by 0.5% to 2.25 million hectares. This includes 1.9 million hectares of actively producing crops, which is a 1.5% increase from the previous year, and an additional 344.61 thousand hectares of developing crops, reflecting a 4.7% decrease.

Conclusion: Factors Influencing Coffee Prices

Several factors could determine whether coffee prices will rise, remain stable, or fall:

• Production Volume: Increased harvest volumes, particularly if sustained, could lead to lower prices due to higher supply.
• Weather Conditions: Favorable weather boosts productivity and supply, while adverse weather can disrupt production and support higher prices.
• Technological Advancements: Continued improvements in agricultural technology can enhance productivity and potentially lower costs, influencing market prices.
• Global Demand:Changes in global coffee demand, influenced by economic conditions and consumer preferences, will significantly impact prices.
• Market Dynamics: Fluctuations in international coffee markets and currency exchange rates also play a crucial role in determining price trends.

Monitoring these elements will be essential for understanding future price movements in the coffee market.