The past trading week brought little news. Although commodity prices in the Turkish Hazelnut Market have risen slightly, there are local differences. The season is coming to an end and exporters now have to decide how to position themselves for the coming season. The question facing most of them is whether they should build up some stocks now in the hope that the prices for the new harvest will be higher, or whether they should go into the new season with little surplus. There are also individual speculators who have been holding stocks for some time, and these too are faced with the question of what to do.

Rumors about the market leader

We assume that the players will observe the market for at least another two to three weeks before making a decision. Rumors about further possible purchasing activities by the market leader are leading to expectations, with the majority of market observers assuming that the market leader is not planning any further activities this season.

Focus is on the new crop

On the demand side, there were still a few remaining covers for the third quarter, which should therefore be almost complete. The focus is now on the coming harvest, although there is still a certain reluctance on the part of buyers. Some are carrying out partial cover. However, there are still no long-term deals, as there is too much uncertainty regarding price and sales trends. Many buyers are reporting challenging negotiations with the trade, which is continuing to delay deals. However, we are also hearing about the start of some tenders. So it seems that the market is slowly starting to move.

The willingness of some suppliers to speculate continues to be interesting. With regard to the new crop, we are receiving offers that are significantly below the current market price, but also offers that are quoted slightly above the current level. As the Turkish lira remains quite stable, this seems to be an assumption on the part of courageous suppliers based on falling commodity prices. This would require the price in the free market to move significantly below the TMO price due to commodity pressure in the free market. Although this scenario could occur, it is not very likely in our view.

A look at the foreign exchange market also shows no reason for a massive change at present. Although the European Central Bank initiated a turnaround in interest rates this week, there have been hardly any changes in exchange rates. The focus therefore remains on commodities.

We do not expect any significant changes in the coming week. It will be interesting to see in which direction the offers for the new harvest continue to trend.

Bullet points

• Commodity prices are only rising locally, otherwise there are hardly any changes in supply.
• Buyers have now almost completed their cover for the third quarter. The focus is now on the 2024 harvest and the market is slowly starting to move.
• The TMO is still able to sell smaller quantities, albeit far below expectations.
• The heterogeneity in the export price lists remains very high. This applies to prompt shipments, but also to offers relating to the 2024 harvest.
• There is still little change in the exchange rate.