Significant Increase from Previous Year

Pistachio crop receipts have stabilized at 1.49 billion pounds, reflecting a substantial 35% increase compared to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC)'s forecast. This figure also represents a remarkable 69% increase from last year's crop of 884.1 million pounds. Adjustments made in April corrected shrinkage and other discrepancies, adding 73.4 million pounds to the crop inventory from March.

Slower Shipments in April

Despite strong shipments in previous months, April saw a slowdown with shipments totaling 79 million pounds, marking only a 9% year-over-year increase. This deceleration is primarily due to a reduction in exports, which dropped to 58 million pounds in April—a 35% decrease from March.

Year-to-Date Shipment Performance

Even with the slowdown in April, total year-to-date shipments have reached 903.7 million pounds, a 50% increase compared to last year. This growth is driven by a significant rise in exports to the European Union, up 76% year-over-year, and a remarkable 140% increase in exports to China. However, domestic shipments continue to show weak momentum, with a sluggish year-over-year increase of only 4%.

Current Inventory and Pricing

Only 31% of the inventory is currently available for shipment from the origin. Given the low inventory availability, pricing is expected to remain firm. Early estimates for the new crop are projected to be in the range of 1 to 1.3 billion pounds.

Market Trends

Bullish Trends:

• Low inventory availability at origin.
• Low carry-out of the current crop and a relatively smaller new crop estimate of around 1 to 1.3 billion pounds.
• Early festive seasons such as Diwali, Christmas, and Lunar New Year.

Bearish Trends:

• Minor inventory increases from shrinkage and other adjustments might soften prices in the short term.
• Resell material is becoming regularly available at destinations at discounted prices from origin.
• Demand slowdown during the summer months, particularly in the China market.

The pistachio market is currently experiencing a dynamic phase with significant increases in crop receipts and exports. However, the recent slowdown in shipments and the anticipated low inventory availability suggest that prices will remain firm in the near term. Market participants should closely monitor inventory levels and demand trends, particularly as festive seasons approach, to navigate the evolving market conditions effectively.

Source:Ofi