Strong May Shipments

The Almond Board of California announced that May 2024 shipments reached 226.0 million pounds, a notable increase of 15.5% compared to 195.6 million pounds in May 2023. The industry had anticipated robust shipments, and the results did not disappoint.

Breakdown of Domestic and Export Shipments

• Domestic Shipments: 65.65 million pounds (+19.5%)
• Export Shipments: 160.41 million pounds (+14.0%)

Top Export Destinations

• India: 32.4 million pounds vs. 19.7 million pounds in May 2023
• U.A.E.: 13.7 million pounds vs. 2.6 million pounds
• Türkiye: 11.7 million pounds vs. 5.3 million pounds
• Spain: 10.1 million pounds vs. 16.9 million pounds
• Netherlands: 9.7 million pounds vs. 8.9 million pounds
• Morocco: 8.8 million pounds vs. 7.9 million pounds

Year-to-Date Shipments and Crop Receipts

Year-to-date shipments now stand at 2.306 billion pounds, up 5.25% from last year's 2.191 billion pounds. Crop receipts are currently at 2.439 billion pounds, a 4.93% decrease from last year's 2.566 billion pounds.

Market Summary

India Leads the Way

India led the charge with 32.2 million pounds shipped in May, followed by significant shipments to the UAE and Türkiye, which quadrupled and doubled last year's figures, respectively. Overall demand has been strong, leading to upward price movements.

New Sales and Inventory

New sales for the current crop reached 134.1 million pounds, with the industry now sold at 82.6% of the crop and carry-in, compared to 79% last year. This positions the carry-out at below 500 million pounds by the end of July, a significant reduction from over 800 million pounds last year.

Limited Inventory

Inventory for current crops such as NPX, IND X, Carmel SSR, Carmel Sup, and Stds 5% is very limited. Prices for these varieties have increased significantly, reflecting strong demand and tight supply.

Price Movements

• Stds 5%: Increased from $1.55-1.60 per lbs to $1.90-1.95 per lbs FAS
• Carmel Sup: Increased over 40 cents per lbs
• NP/Indy Inshell: Increased over 15 cents per lbs

Market Outlook

The dwindling carry-in from the 2023 crop to the 2024 crop has been a major driver for recent price increases. Expected carry-in is now below 500 million pounds, even with a larger 2024 crop. This will leave warehouses empty and give suppliers more leverage to wait for favorable prices. The transition from old to new crop will be tight, forcing buyers to accept higher prices initially.

Tree Health and Crop Expectations

Trees in the orchards appear healthy, with good mid-sized distribution. While not a record crop, the orchards are in good condition without significant limb breakage.

Future Shipments

June shipments are anticipated to potentially set a new record, bolstered by strong sales from April and May. The next position report will be released on July 11, 2024, following the Objective Crop Estimate for 2024 on July 10, 2024.

The almond market is experiencing a robust period with significant growth in shipments and sales. Despite some inventory constraints, the outlook remains positive with strong global demand and healthy orchard conditions. Stakeholders should monitor upcoming reports and estimates closely to navigate the market dynamics effectively.

Source: Summit Almonds