Signs Of Further Improvement In Turmeric
Current Market Scenario
The turmeric market continues to experience a steady increase in prices. On June 11, turmeric prices rose by 0.86 per cent. This upward trend is mainly due to farmers holding onto their stock, anticipating further price increases. The supply shortage exacerbated by adverse weather conditions is contributing to the price rise. With the scorching heat and ongoing heatwave across the country, crop production is under threat, further tightening supply.Weather Impact and Production Estimates
The Meteorological Department has predicted continued hot weather and heatwaves. Additionally, South India has experienced significantly less rainfall than usual, worsening crop conditions. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare estimates turmeric production to be 1.074 million tonnes for the year 2023-24, down from 1.130 million tonnes last year. The reduction in production, coupled with adverse weather, has led to supply shortages and increased prices.Market Behavior and Price Trends
The anticipation of increased sowing areas in major turmeric-producing regions like Sangli, Basmat, and Hingoli is influencing market behaviour. These areas are seeing a rise in demand for quality turmeric. However, despite the expected increase in production, current market trends indicate no immediate signs of price softening. In the significant market of Nizamabad in Telangana, turmeric prices reflected an 18 per cent increase. Fresh buying activity is evident, with open interest in the turmeric market increasing by 4.95 per cent, closing at 18,030 contracts.ÂExport and Import Trends
Despite the domestic price rise, turmeric exports have declined. During April-March 2024, turmeric exports decreased by 4.75 per cent compared to the previous year, totalling 162,018.50 tonnes. Imports also declined by 12.71 per cent to 14,637.55 tonnes during the same period. In March 2024, turmeric exports increased by 34.90 per cent compared to February but were 7.37 per cent lower than in March 2023. Conversely, imports in March 2024 increased by 32.70 per cent year-on-year. The fluctuation in export and import volumes highlights the impact of domestic price trends on international trade. As prices rise, demand in the export market adjusts, reflecting changes in global market fluctuations.The turmeric market is poised for further price increases due to supply shortages and adverse weather conditions. Farmers' anticipation of higher future prices has led to limited sales, maintaining the upward price trend. Despite a decline in exports, the domestic market remains robust, driven by reduced production and strong demand for quality turmeric.Â
