Production and Consumption Gap

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) had initially projected a gap of 0.689 tonnes between global sugar production and consumption for the 2023-24 marketing season. However, the latest report now indicates this gap has widened to 3 million tonnes.

In its quarterly report, the ISO forecasts global sugar production at 179.3 million tonnes for the 2023-24 season, slightly lower than the February estimate of 179.7 million tonnes. The report highlights significant disparities between global production and consumption, suggesting potential challenges in the market.

Production Declines While Consumption Rises

Global sugar production for the 2022-23 season was 173 million tonnes. Brazil and India remain the leading sugar producers worldwide. Despite the marginal decrease in the 2023-24 production estimate by 0.4 million tonnes, the ISO has increased its global consumption estimate (by 1.8 million tonnes), from 180.4 million tonnes to 182.2 million tonnes. This consumption estimate is 3.2 million tonnes higher than the previous season and 2.9 million tonnes more than the current production estimate for the 2023-24 season.

Impact on Global Sugar Market

The ISO had previously estimated a global sugar stock of 67.1 million tonnes available for export during the 2023-24 season, which has now been revised down by 1.7 million tonnes. However, the demand for sugar imports has also been reduced from 67.1 million tonnes to 66.8 million tonnes, still leaving a shortfall of 1.4 million tonnes between export availability and import demand.This projected shortfall indicates that the global outstanding stock of sugar will decrease as demand is met. If production does not improve in the 2024-25 season, there could be upward pressure on sugar prices.

The International Sugar Organization's latest report highlights a significant shortfall in global sugar production for the 2023-24 season, with a revised gap of 3 million tonnes between production and consumption. The marginal decline in production and the substantial increase in consumption point to potential challenges in meeting global demand. This situation is likely to affect export and import dynamics, potentially leading to increased sugar prices if production does not improve in the next season.