Increased Domestic Garlic Production

The garlic production in Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir has surged by 150% this year. Farmers in these regions have experienced substantial earnings. Previously, Kashmiri farmers sold their entire garlic crop within a month. However, for the past two years, they have adopted a strategy of storing their produce for up to ten months, selling it gradually. Historically, Kashmiri garlic was sold at nominal rates. This year, the price has escalated, with a potential increase in the coming days. Favorable weather conditions have contributed to this trend.

Market Stability and Concerns

Contrary to market rumors predicting a slowdown post-elections, the garlic market has shown no signs of deceleration. Instead, it continues to thrive. Chinese garlic is entering India via Nepal. If this import is halted, prices could soar. However, continued imports might cause a decline as well. In the short term, garlic prices are expected to remain bullish. Within a month and a half, Chinese garlic may begin to flood the Indian market, exerting significant pressure. China's substantial garlic production and export capabilities can severely affect the Indian market, mainly if more than 300 containers arrive. Major distribution centers for Chinese garlic in India include Coimbatore, Assam, Manipur-Guwahati, and Delhi.

Quality and Stock Management

Approximately 50% of the garlic from Himachal Pradesh and Kashmir has already reached the market. The remaining produce is of high quality and competes favorably with Chinese garlic. This year, significant stocks have been stored in various centers across the country, including Gujarat. Concerted efforts are required to curb the import of second-grade chinese garlic. The traders have already booked 100-150 containers of Chinese garlic, anticipating increased pressure and large-scale imports in the near future.

Domestic Market Fluctuations

In Madhya Pradesh, garlic production is around 40,000 to 50,000 sacks daily, while Rajasthan produces about 30,000 sacks daily. Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Kashmir's garlic supplies are depleting gradually, and Gujarat's production is limited. The overall production is insufficient to meet demand. Exports of Indian garlic have not been significant. However, with favorable rains, the demand for garlic seeds is expected to rise, maintaining a bullish market outlook. China, with an estimated production of 5.0 to 5.5 million tonnes, has already supplied 1.5 million tonnes to the market, stabilizing prices. Indonesia's purchase of 0.7 million tonnes and high prices in the European market are also influencing global trends. In India, import parity with import duty is unlikely under current circumstances.

Future Projections

Garlic prices are expected to rise post-monsoon. This year, Saurashtra harvested 1.0 million bags of garlic, with 0.7 to 0.8 million bags still available. However, due to spoilage, a significant portion will be unusable. In Rajasthan, 70% of the garlic crop has been affected by adverse weather. Similarly, 40 to 50% of the garlic in Madhya Pradesh has been spoiled. Consequently, garlic from Himachal and Kashmir is in higher demand. The prices of this garlic are expected to remain high.

The Indian garlic market is poised for a significant rise in prices post-rains. However, the threat of Chinese garlic imports remains a substantial challenge. Efforts to curb these imports are crucial to maintaining market stability and supporting domestic farmers.