Projected Decline in Indian Coffee Production

India's coffee output for the 2024-25 season, beginning in October, is forecasted to be slightly lower due to poor pre-monsoon rains, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The upcoming harvest is expected to decrease by 0.1 million bags of 60 kg each, resulting in a total of 6 million bags. This decline is mainly attributed to a drop in arabica production, while robusta output remains unchanged. The projected decline in India, the world's seventh-largest coffee producer, contrasts with a global rebound in coffee production. The USDA forecasts world coffee production for 2024-25 to increase by 7.1 million bags to 176.2 million. This recovery is driven by continued growth in Brazil and rebounding output in Indonesia.

Stakeholders' Perspectives

The USDA has forecasted India's arabica output for 2024-25 at 1.4 million bags, down from the previous year's 1.5 million bags, due to poor pre-monsoon rains. Robusta production is expected to remain steady at 4.6 million bags of 60 kg each under normal growing conditions. Additionally, India's bean exports are forecasted to decrease slightly to 4.2 million bags from last year's 4.25 million bags due to lower output. Coffee stakeholders anticipate an adverse impact on the upcoming crop due to the prolonged dry spell and higher-than-normal temperatures during March-May. Pre-monsoon showers are crucial for coffee, and most coffee-growing regions in India experienced a deficit. The USDA previously projected a 3% dip in arabica yields to 402 kg per hectare and a 2% decline in robusta yields to 1,230 kg per hectare due to poor pre-monsoon rains and dry weather.

Monsoon Deficiency And Regional Rainfall Data

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data reveals significant rainfall deficiencies in key coffee-growing districts during the ongoing monsoon season. Kodagu experienced a 51% deficiency, with actual rainfall at 212.9 mm compared to the standard 437.8 mm. Chikkmagaluru had a 40% deficiency, receiving 158.7 mm of rain against the normal 263.9 mm. In Kerala's Wayanad district, a central robusta-producing area, there was a 58% deficiency. With actual rainfall at 220 mm against the normal 522.9 mm.

Global Coffee Production Trends

The USDA forecasts Brazil's combined arabica and robusta harvest to increase by 3.6 million bags, reaching 69.9 million in 2024-25. Brazil's arabica output is expected to rise by 3.3 million bags to 48.2 million, while robusta production is projected to increase by 300,000 bags to 21.7 million. Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, is forecast to maintain its production at nearly 29 million bags. Colombia's arabica production is expected to rise by 200,000 bags to 12.4 million due to slightly higher yields. Indonesia's combined arabica and robusta harvest is forecast to rebound by nearly 2.8 million bags to 10.9 million, thanks to favorable growing conditions. With additional supplies, global exports are expected to rise by 3.6 million bags to 123.1 million, driven primarily by solid shipments from Indonesia and Brazil.

India's coffee production for the 2024-25 season is set to decline slightly due to poor pre-monsoon rains, impacting arabica yields. This comes at a time when global coffee production is rebounding, led by Brazil and Indonesia. The monsoon's progression will play a critical role in shaping future market trends.