Cocoa prices continued the downward movement registered since the end of last week on the New York Stock Exchange, and closed lower for the fifth consecutive session. This Wednesday (26/6), lots for July were traded at US$7,797 per ton, or 2.13% less than the last closing date.

After much lower-than-expected yields in the 2023/24 season for cocoa-producing areas in West Africa, agents now view climate projections for the next harvest, which will begin in October, with a little more optimism.

“The departure of El Niño and the entry of La Niña should benefit the region's rainfall regime, and this ends up bringing a feeling of greater supply”, says Ale Delara, partner at Pine Agronegócios.

Despite an expectation of improvement in West African production, it will not be able to reverse the global deficit, which is expected to extend for the fourth consecutive harvest in 2024/25, according to Delara.

“We would have to see a very large drop in demand to bring the deficit to zero. As much as a recovery in supply is expected, it will hardly exceed the more than 400 thousand tons of negative balance projected for 2023/24”.

Amid the consistent declines in cocoa on the stock exchange, Ale Delara corroborates the idea of ​​other market analysts, that it is still not possible to rule out new records for the commodity in the external scenario.

“Amounts between US$7 and US$8 thousand are appropriate for the current moment. But if the effects of La Niña on the climate in Africa are anticipated, we could have a drought in July, which could result in a loss of productive potential for cocoa trees”, he points out.

Source:

Cacau volta a cair em Nova York após otimismo com clima no oeste africano (globo.com)

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