Reduced Stock of California Almond Kernels

The stock of California almond kernels has gradually reduced in ports and distributor markets. Prices of independent kernels, which were previously low, have increased significantly due to the shortage of goods. This has reduced the price gap between California and independent kernels. Currently, independent kernels are priced at $6,78-$6,84 per kg, while California kernels are at $7,08-$7,20 per kg. This difference, previously around $0,90-$0,96, has now narrowed to $0,24 per kg. The scarcity of independent almond kernels, which previously kept California kernel prices low, is contributing to the current price increase.

Impact of Weather and Import Costs

California's container ports have seen a reduction in almond arrivals over the past two and a half months. Consequently, almond kernels are becoming harder to find, making a recession in California almond prices unlikely. Bookings in California are high, indicating that imports are becoming more expensive than current rates. Additionally, unfavorable weather conditions for the upcoming Australian crop and a limited number of containers available to Indian importers are exacerbating the situation. Given these circumstances, the current price of almond kernels is not expected to decrease.

Stock Status in Key Markets

Markets such as Amritsar, Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Ambala, Karnal, and Shimla in Himachal Pradesh have limited stock. Significant quantities have already been shipped to Bihar, Bengal, Assam, and UP. Traders, having faced substantial losses in the almond trade over the past three years, have not stocked up heavily. Considering these factors, the price of almond kernels, currently at $7,08 per kg, could increase by $1,20 per kg at any time.

The almond kernel market is poised for profitable growth due to reduced stock and increasing prices. With high bookings in California, unfavorable weather affecting Australian crops, and limited imports, the current market trends indicate a potential price rise. Traders and businesses should prepare for continued market volatility and potential price hikes.