Increased Planting Area

During a conference in April, updated information about the new pumpkin seed harvest in China was shared:

• Shine Skin: Over 200 million Mu (1 Mu = 666.67 m²)
• GWS: Approximately 50,000 Mu
• Snow White: Approximately 290,000 Mu
• Lady Nail: Approximately 290,000 Mu

The total planting area has increased by about 28.3% compared to 2023.

Adverse Weather Impacts

Despite the increased planting area, poor weather conditions in May and June, including severe storms and hail, have damaged pumpkin crops. Some farmers have had to replant their crops. Recently, high temperatures and water shortages in the northwest pumpkin-growing regions, along with floods in the northeast, particularly in Huanan, have further impacted the harvest and yield.

Market Speculation and Stability

There are still significant stocks from the 2023 harvest, especially of Shine Skin pumpkin seeds, which were purchased at high prices. Last week, some speculators attempted to raise market prices by about $100/MT, achieving partial success before the market stabilized again.

Discrepancies in Planting Area Estimates

Opinions on the planting area this year vary, with some suggesting it has doubled, while others estimate a 50% increase compared to last year. Given China's vast size and the wide distribution of pumpkin-growing areas, obtaining precise figures is challenging.

Uncertainties in Exchange Rates and Freight Costs

The exchange rate between the Chinese RMB and the US Dollar, along with high freight costs, remains uncertain and could significantly influence prices.

The upcoming pumpkin seed harvest in China is subject to various challenges, including weather conditions and market fluctuations. Stakeholders should closely monitor these factors as they will play a crucial role in determining the final harvest outcome and market prices. With 2.5-3 months until the harvest, the situation remains fluid and requires careful observation.