High Stock Levels and Export Competition

Currently, domestic cumin production has surged compared to last year. Major producers and stockists hold substantial stock, yet show little interest in selling at lower prices. Rival exporting countries like Syria and Türkiye are seeing increased arrivals of new cumin consignments, which may pose a challenge for Indian exporters in the global market. However, the quality and competitive pricing of Indian cumin remain advantageous. If prices in Syria and Türkiye do not decline, India will still find it feasible to boost exports.

Cumin Prices Expected to Improve with Export Demand

In China, cumin production is projected to decline by 35-40% this year compared to last year, which could significantly increase their imports from India. Despite the ongoing arrival of new consignments in China, they contracted to import 100 containers from India last month. More deals are anticipated this month due to the attractive price levels of Indian cumin. China has become a major buyer of Indian cumin in recent years. On average, 10,000-12,000 bags of cumin arrive daily in Unjha Mandi, Gujarat, which is below normal levels.

The demand for cumin in May-June was weak, preventing a sharp rise in prices. If the new crops of cumin in Türkiye and Syria arrive late, India could benefit. Strong export demand could further improve cumin prices from current levels, though a sudden sharp rise is unlikely due to the ample stock within the country.

In summary, cumin prices are set to improve due to strong export demand and competitive pricing. Market dynamics, including reduced Chinese production and potential delays in rival countries' crops, will influence prices. Therefore, traders and producers should prepare for potential price increases and market shifts.