Impact of Domestic and International Supply

Currently, black pepper prices are gradually decreasing due to reduced production both domestically and in Vietnam. On the other hand, the cost of black pepper from Colombo has increased, showing a rise of $1,20 per kg. This time, black pepper production is estimated to decrease from 75,000 to 60,000 metric tons. Additionally, Vietnam's crop, usually 125,000 metric tons, is estimated at only 85,000 metric tons this year. As a result, prices in Vietnam have risen to approximately $8,50-$8,60 per kg at Indian ports.

Expected Price Increase for Black Pepper: Shortages and Import Costs

The reduction in Colombo's black pepper supplies has pushed prices to $7,45-$7,50 per kg. With no duties levied, importers have bought large quantities from other countries, leaving little for domestic consumption. Consequently, importing black pepper from producing countries has become expensive. Black pepper from Vietnam now costs around $9,06-$9,12 per kg. Colombo and domestic black pepper prices have remained at $8,40-$8,52 per kg, with no further decreases expected.

External Influences and Global Market Pressures

Vietnam does not import black pepper, and its domestic crop was harvested in March, with the next crop expected in March of the following year. This situation has created a significant shortage of black pepper. Moreover, due to high prices in other countries, Vietnam is also exporting black pepper, further driving up prices. The supply of black pepper from Imphal Assam has decreased over the past two months. Traders anticipate that Colombo's black pepper will be available at low prices for only ten days due to heavy stock cuts, after which prices are likely to rise further due to shortages.

In summary, black pepper prices are expected to rise due to reduced production and increased import costs. Market dynamics, including global supply challenges and export trends, will continue to influence prices. Therefore, traders and producers should prepare for potential price increases and market shifts.