Key Highlights from the June Position Report

The Almond Board of California released its eleventh "June Position Report" for the 2023 crop year on Thursday, July 11th. The report presents several key insights into the current state of the almond market.

Receipts

June receipts totaled 6.10 million lbs., representing a significant increase of 156% from last June’s receipts of 2.40 million lbs. With one month left in the crop year, total receipts are expected to finalize just below 2.45 billion lbs.

Shipments

Total shipments for the month were 206.16 million lbs., slightly below industry expectations of 220 million lbs. However, this figure is still a 10.48% increase compared to last June. If the industry can match last July’s shipments of 186.67 million lbs., a sub-450 million lbs. carryout is achievable. Year-to-date (YTD) shipments are up 5.66%, making this target feasible.

• Domestic Shipments: June domestic shipments were 62.02 million lbs., up 1.93% from last year’s 60.85 million lbs. Despite a strong April and May, domestic shipments have normalized but still have the potential to finish the crop year up YTD for the first time since the 2020/21 crop. Currently, domestic shipments are up 2.29% YTD.
• Export Shipments: Export shipments in June were 144.14 million lbs., a 14.62% increase from last year’s 125.76 million lbs. Export performance remains robust, with a 6.95% increase YTD. All major destination markets, except Western Europe, saw increases, with India and the Middle East showing the strongest growth both for June and YTD.

Sales & Commitments

Total sales for the month were 92.37 million lbs., down 40% from last year’s 154.69 million lbs. This decrease is not surprising given the depletion of the most sought-after grades. However, new crop sales were strong for the second consecutive month at 98.16 million lbs. Total new crop commitments now stand at 271.28 million lbs., up 121.66% from last year’s 122.39 million lbs. Overall, total sales for the month reached 190.53 million lbs.

Commitments for the 2023 crop year are 347.02 million lbs., down 23% from last year’s 451.04 million lbs. However, combined commitments for the 2023 and 2024 crop years are 618.30 million lbs., up 7.82% from last year’s 573.43 million lbs. Uncommitted inventory is currently 337.52 million lbs., down 35.72% from last year’s 525.05 million lbs. This figure is likely lower due to an additional ~54 million lbs. of loss and exempt that will be added at the end of the crop year. Much of this uncommitted inventory is expected to be lower-grade products.

In a Nutshell

Overall, the June Position Report supports the bullish outlook from the previous day's Objective Estimate of 2.8 billion lbs. With this estimate and a projected carryout of under 450 million lbs., the total supply for the upcoming crop year could remain relatively flat compared to this year, providing much-needed balance to the almond industry.

The final carryout will be determined by July shipments in the Final Position Report for the 2023 crop year. Attention will now shift to weather and harvest conditions in California as the 2024 crop harvest begins in a few weeks.

The current market conditions highlight the importance of strategic planning and adaptability within the almond industry. With fluctuating shipments and evolving global demand, stakeholders must stay informed and responsive to maintain stability and growth in the coming years.

Source: Ofi