Significant Decline in Wheat Imports

According to the USDA's July forecast, Türkiye's wheat imports for the 2024-2025 season are expected to decrease to 8 million tons, a reduction of 18.7% compared to the previous season. This will mark the lowest level of wheat imports in the past six years.

Record Wheat Harvest and Storage

Last season saw a record wheat harvest in Türkiye, reaching 21 million tons, matching the record set in the 2017/18 season. Wheat storage levels have surpassed 5 million tons, the highest in the past 30 years. This year's harvest is projected to be 19 million tons, which, although lower than last year, is still above the five-year average.

Temporary Wheat Import Ban

From June 21 to October 15, 2024, Türkiye will halt wheat imports due to excessive storage levels and a good harvest, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Over the past three seasons, Türkiye has been the largest buyer of Russian wheat.

Türkiye's Position in the Wheat Market

Despite a nearly one-third reduction in supply, Türkiye remained the primary importer of Russian grain in the 2023/24 season. Türkiye is also the world's largest exporter of wheat flour, with major buyers in Iraq, Venezuela, and various African countries.

Shift in Flour Production Policy

Until recently, all exported Turkish flour was produced from imported wheat, while domestically produced wheat was consumed within the country. For the first time since 2018, mills can now process Turkish wheat for re-export.

Competitive Edge in Flour Exports

Turkish flour exports are expected to be very competitive in international markets, as domestic prices for some wheat classes were lower than Black Sea prices before the import ban was implemented.

Impact on Major Suppliers

USDA analysts believe that Russia and Ukraine will be the primary suppliers affected by Türkiye's wheat import ban. Andrey Sizov, director of the SovEcon analytical center, noted that Türkiye periodically imposes such bans but will resume imports as the country needs raw materials for flour production. Current forecasts indicate a reduction in Russian wheat exports this season, with July shipments already 68% lower compared to last year.

Türkiye's decision to reduce wheat imports significantly impacts the global wheat market, particularly affecting key suppliers like Russia and Ukraine. As Türkiye navigates its record storage levels and shifts in flour production policies, the agricultural sector must remain adaptable to these changing dynamics to maintain market stability and meet domestic and international demands.