Significant Decrease in Chinese Production

This year, the activity of importers has increased significantly due to the low domestic crop in China, a major importer of Indian cumin. According to a leading trade analyst, cumin production in China has sharply declined by about 40% compared to last year. In April 2024, the first month of the current financial year, India's cumin exports saw a tremendous increase of 133%. A substantial amount of cumin was exported to countries like China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco, and Afghanistan. Analysts attribute this increase to excellent production, better stock, and competitive international market prices.

Impact of Competitive Pricing and High Stock Levels

Last year, high prices for Indian cumin drove traditional buyers like Iran, UAE, USA, and Bangladesh to source cumin from Türkiye, China, and Syria. India had to increase its own cumin imports from China. However, this year, the price of Indian cumin has normalized, and high stock levels are leading to increased export demand. Jodhpur traders report that cumin currently trades between $3,60-$4,00 per kg in the global market, higher than Indian prices. Consequently, demand for Indian cumin remains strong. With the next crop of cumin expected in seven to eight months, prices may receive further support. New cumin is anticipated from Syria and Türkiye next month.

Global Market Dynamics Favor Indian Cumin

The global market price for cumin, currently between $3,60-$4,00 per kg, favors Indian cumin due to its competitive pricing. With significant stock and normalized prices, Indian cumin exports are expected to increase further. The arrival of new cumin crops from Syria and Türkiye next month will also impact market dynamics. Traders and producers should prepare for potential price increases and market shifts in the coming months.

In summary, the demand for Indian cumin has surged due to a sharp decline in Chinese production. Market dynamics, including competitive pricing and high stock levels, will continue to drive cumin prices. Therefore, traders and producers should anticipate increased export demand and prepare for market adjustments.