Wheat Price Decline

Wheat prices have fallen by 2.3-3.5%, driven by increased harvest forecasts for Russia and the latest USDA report. Despite abnormal heat in Ukraine and southeastern Europe, which may impact spring wheat yields, these factors have not halted the price decline.

Weekly Price Movements

Wheat prices dropped by 3.2-6.3% over the week, with a 2.3-3.5% decline just yesterday. This decrease is attributed to improved crop conditions and an active harvesting campaign.

Russian Wheat Harvest Forecasts

The IKAR company has raised its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest by 1.2 million tons to 83.2 million tons. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture (MSG) has maintained its forecast at 86 million tons, down from 92 million tons last year.

Ukrainian Wheat Harvest

As of July 12, Ukraine has harvested 5.7 million tons of wheat from 34% of the area, totaling 1.509 million hectares with a yield of 3.77 tons/ha. However, yields and quality vary across regions. High temperatures of up to 35-42°C have reduced wheat moisture to 9-10%, potentially affecting protein content.

Farmers are withholding wheat sales, maintaining high prices due to strong export demand and a rising dollar. Prices for food wheat delivered to Black Sea ports range from UAH 8,800-9,200/t ($190-195/t), while feed wheat ranges from UAH 8,000-8,300/t ($175-180/t).

Weather Impact in France

Despite bad weather in France, wheat prices have not risen. As of July 8, only 4% of the wheat area had been harvested, compared to 26% on this date last year. The number of crops in good or excellent condition is now at 57%, the lowest in four years, due to prolonged rains and lack of sunlight.

Argentine Wheat Sowing

The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that as of July 10, 5.85 million hectares (92.9% of the planned area) have been sown with wheat in Argentina, with an expected harvest of 20.5 million tons. This figure is 3% less than the 2023/24 MR harvest of 21 million tons. Lack of precipitation and low temperatures have worsened crop conditions, although initially 97.2% of wheat crops were in good or excellent condition.

The fluctuations in wheat prices and harvest forecasts underscore the importance of closely monitoring agricultural trends and weather patterns. As regions face varying conditions, strategic planning and timely market responses will be crucial for stakeholders to navigate these changes effectively.

U.S. Harvest and Crop Conditions

In the U.S., as of July 14, 71% of winter wheat has been harvested, surpassing the five-year average of 62%. Yields are higher than last year, and the percentage of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition rose by 2% to 77%, compared to 51% last year.