In Ukraine, the situation of 2020 regarding the corn and sunflower harvest may be repeated.

Difficult weather conditions in Ukraine negatively affect the future harvest of corn and sunflower. The situation in 2020 resulted in crops decrease by 35% due to drought. As of July 17th, productive moisture reserves are still very low. Despite the fact that temperatures are predicted to drop, the lack of precipitation will negatively affect the development of these crops. While corn, in particular, begins to flower, the foundation for yield is laid. The situation can be quite critical. This fact forces some importers to stock up on corn while it is cheap.

As a result, the demand for corn in the world has increased. On July 8, Romanian corn cost $190-192 per ton FOB. And on July 15 it was already $200-202, that is,  $10 increase per week. Ukrainian corn on the export market has risen in price by $3-4 per ton. Demand has resumed and European importers have begun to stockpile. Egypt is starting to contract corn. Yesterday the target price was $170-172 per ton, and if weather risks persist, in August we may see a price of $180 for old-harvest corn.

Trading activity on the sunflower market is still low. By the end of the season, this crop will be illiquid. As for the pricing policy of the new harvest, the indication for September-October will be $410-430 per ton (including VAT). Analysts do not yet advise entering into future forward contracts as the situation remains uncertain. But the price for sunflower is very likely to increase.