India's Monsoon Above Normal in Early July, But Deficit Looms
Crucial Week Ahead for Rainfall Recovery
In early July, India experienced a 9% above-normal monsoon, thanks to a significant 39% surplus recorded during the first week. However, a substantial deficit in the second week has emerged, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting a potential monsoon revival this week. An IMD source reported a 15% rainfall deficit last week, with significant drops in all meteorological subdivisions except the south.Regional Rainfall Variability in Early July
The IMD identified a low-pressure area off the South Odisha coast, expected to boost monsoon activity as it progresses into the second half of July. The initial surplus helped recover from an 11% deficiency in June, aiding sowing activities. As of July 15, India received 140.5 mm of rainfall, against a normal 128.9 mm for the period. The east and northwestern regions, including West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and the North-Eastern states, received 322.2 mm of rain, 52.1% above the long-period average (LPA) of 211.8 mm.The northwest region, comprising Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir, received 106.3 mm of rain, 17.3% above the normal 90.6 mm. Central India, including Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Goa, saw 153.9 mm of rainfall, 6.4% above the LPA of 144.7 mm. The south peninsula, including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, reported 104.6 mm, 10.9% above the normal 94.3 mm.
Impact on Major States and Sowing Period
From June 1 to July 15, India received 287.7 mm of rain, 2.2% below the LPA of 294.2 mm. Despite early coverage, 11 of 36 meteorological subdivisions reported deficient rainfall, affecting 31% of India's geographical area. Major states like Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Jharkhand remain in the "below normal" category, while Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir have also turned deficient.The southwest monsoon covered the entire country by July 2, six days ahead of schedule. The IMD predicts "above normal" rainfall for July, except in some northeastern regions. This period is crucial for maximum sowing activities.
Conclusion
In summary, early July's monsoon brought a surplus, but a mid-month deficit poses challenges. The predicted revival of the monsoon is crucial for addressing this shortfall. Regional rainfall variability has influenced agricultural activities, with significant rainfall in some areas and deficiencies in others. The coming weeks will be critical for India's monsoon season and agricultural outcomes.