Rapeseed Prices in Ukraine Remain High Amid Forecasts of Decreased Soybean and Sunflower Harvests
Despite a sharp drop in stock market quotations for rapeseed, soybeans, and soybean oil over the past week, rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain high, supported by forecasts of decreased soybean and sunflower harvests.
In Chicago, December soybean oil futures have decreased by 7.3% to $998/t since July 8, losing the speculative gains of the previous two weeks but remaining 3% above last month's figures. Similarly, September Brent crude futures fell by 2.4% to $83.8/barrel, nearly matching the previous month's price.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange also saw a decline, dropping 4.7% to CAD 621/t or $454/t during this time, reflecting a 0.6% decrease for the month.
Demand prices for rapeseed deliveries to the EU in July-August have also dropped by €10/t to €455-460/t. However, truckload offers remain low due to competitive prices at Black Sea ports.
The current stability of rapeseed prices in Ukraine, despite broader market declines, underscores the complex interplay of global market forces and regional agricultural conditions. As producers and traders navigate these fluctuations, the anticipation of lower soybean and sunflower harvests will be a key factor in market strategies and pricing decisions moving forward.
Stock Market Trends
August rapeseed futures on the Paris Stock Exchange are under pressure from lower oil and soybean oil prices, currently trading at €467.25/t or $509.5/t. This is consistent with last month's levels, despite having risen and then fallen by 10% over the period.In Chicago, December soybean oil futures have decreased by 7.3% to $998/t since July 8, losing the speculative gains of the previous two weeks but remaining 3% above last month's figures. Similarly, September Brent crude futures fell by 2.4% to $83.8/barrel, nearly matching the previous month's price.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange also saw a decline, dropping 4.7% to CAD 621/t or $454/t during this time, reflecting a 0.6% decrease for the month.
Ukraine's Domestic Market
In Ukraine, the purchase prices for rapeseed delivered to Black Sea ports have decreased by UAH 300-500/t over the week, now standing at UAH 21,700-22,200/t or $470-475/t. Despite this, producers are starting to withhold sales in anticipation of price increases, driven by forecasts of reduced soybean and sunflower harvests due to abnormal heat conditions.Demand prices for rapeseed deliveries to the EU in July-August have also dropped by €10/t to €455-460/t. However, truckload offers remain low due to competitive prices at Black Sea ports.
EU Market Dynamics
EU rapeseed oil prices continue to decline as supply increases. These prices have now fallen below sunflower oil prices, which are being supported by potential crop reductions in Ukraine and the Russian Federation due to intense heat.The current stability of rapeseed prices in Ukraine, despite broader market declines, underscores the complex interplay of global market forces and regional agricultural conditions. As producers and traders navigate these fluctuations, the anticipation of lower soybean and sunflower harvests will be a key factor in market strategies and pricing decisions moving forward.
