Recent Price Trends in Garlic

The market prices of garlic have recently increased by $0,18 to $0,24 per kg, with good quality garlic being quoted between $1,20 to $1,80 per kg. Despite this rise, the sale and demand for garlic remain low, with very few buyers at these high prices. Stockists and farmers in Gujarat are holding on to their garlic, hoping for prices to reach $3,60 per kg like last year, although this seems unlikely. If the demand increases, prices could rise by $0,30 per kg, but otherwise, prices are expected to fluctuate without a significant decline.

Regional Stock Levels

Traders in Saurashtra have kept a good stock of local, Himachal, and Kashmir garlic. Himachal garlic, priced above $1,80 per kg, is not favored in Saurashtra due to its bland taste and is mainly sold in the South or sent to Mumbai. Meanwhile, a small quantity of Chinese garlic is imported illegally by traders in Delhi, but high prices in China limit large imports. Farmers in Saurashtra may start selling their garlic after Janmashtami, with potential sales stretching to Diwali or even January 14, depending on price trends.

Market Projections and Analysis

Garlic prices have improved due to reduced revenue in the market. The total daily income in Gondal is 700 to 800 sacks, with half from local Desi garlic and the rest from Deshavar garlic. This year, a 50% reduction in the garlic crop in Saurashtra has significantly reduced income. If there is good rain and increased demand for garlic seeds, prices could reach $3 per kg by Diwali or Navratri.

There is very little stock of garlic in Saurashtra, and stocks are also low in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Poor storage conditions have further damaged existing stocks. Over 60% of the season's garlic in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan has already been sold, with the remaining expected to be sold at good prices. After Diwali, the market picture will become clearer, with potential price increases if demand for seeds rises.

Garlic Prices and Trade Dynamics

The garlic market is currently booming. In Madhya Pradesh, the price of Desi quality garlic ranges from $1,20 to $2,52 per kg, while high-quality garlic ranges from $2,16 to $3,00 per kg. Prices are expected to rise by $0,48 per kg by the end of August due to reduced sowing and a 30% crop drop, leading to a 16% reduction in total production.

This year's garlic stock is 40% lower than last year, with 55% of the season's goods already in the market. Only new garlic was consumed in January and February due to the depletion of old stocks. With no new garlic arriving until January, there is an estimated 30% shortage to meet national needs, which could drive prices up significantly. Limited imports from China due to government checks mean that local market prices are unlikely to be significantly affected by Chinese garlic.

In summary, garlic prices are influenced by various factors, including seasonal demand, regional stock levels, and international trade dynamics. With potential shortages and high demand, prices are expected to rise in the coming months. Traders and producers should monitor these trends to anticipate market conditions and make informed decisions.