Yield Forecasts Reduced for Key Crops

In their July report, experts from the MARS agency have lowered the yield forecasts for most agricultural crops in the EU, while slightly raising the estimate for wheat. The revised forecasts reflect the impact of dry and hot weather in Southeastern Europe, which is expected to result in lower-than-average yields for late crops this year.

Specific Crop Yield Adjustments

Corn

• Revised Forecast: 7.24 t/ha
• Previous Forecast: 7.55 t/ha
• Comparison to 5-Year Average: 2% less than the 5-year average of 7.35 t/ha

Rapeseed

• Revised Forecast: 3.1 t/ha
• Previous Forecast: 3.16 t/ha
• Comparison to 5-Year Average: Slightly lower than the 5-year average of 3.17 t/ha

Barley

• Revised Forecast: 5.09 t/ha
• Previous Forecast: 5.14 t/ha
• Comparison to 5-Year Average: 3% higher than the 5-year average of 4.93 t/ha

Sunflower

• Revised Forecast: 2.09 t/ha
• Previous Forecast: 2.2 t/ha
• Comparison to 5-Year Average: 2% less than the 5-year average of 2.13 t/ha

Wheat Yield Forecast Increased

Contrary to the general trend, the yield forecast for soft wheat in the EU has been slightly increased:

• Revised Forecast: 5.87 t/ha
• Previous Forecast: 5.86 t/ha
• Comparison to 5-Year Average: Matches the 5-year average of 5.87 t/ha

Market Reactions

Quotations on the Paris stock exchange responded to the report with a slight increase on Monday but remained stable on Tuesday. Traders appear to be waiting for harvest results and new forecasts following a wave of rain and lower temperatures in Eastern Europe.

The adjustments in yield forecasts by the MARS agency highlight the significant impact of weather conditions on agricultural productivity. As the market responds to these updates, the agricultural sector must remain adaptable and prepared for further changes based on ongoing weather developments and harvest outcomes. Ensuring accurate and timely forecasting will be crucial for planning and decision-making in the upcoming season.