Ukraine Faces Yield Decrease Amid Abnormal Heat
Early and Late Crop Yields Affected
The Ministry of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine has projected that the average yield of early crops will decrease by only 5%. However, the yield of late crops, including soybeans and corn, is expected to drop by 15% due to abnormal heat in most regions.Weather Conditions and Soil Moisture
Although temperatures in Ukraine have recently returned to normal, precipitation remains uneven, leaving soil moisture reserves low in many areas. This lack of moisture is causing plants to dry out and deteriorating the condition of soybean and corn crops.Corn Prices and Export Trends
During the past week, purchase prices for new harvest corn with delivery to the port in October-November increased by $3-5 per ton, reaching $180-185 per ton SRT. This price level is slightly higher than last year's and is supported by rising export prices for fodder wheat, which have reached $180 per ton SRT-port due to a shortage of offers from farmers.According to the State Customs Service, as of July 29, Ukraine has exported 1.47 million tons of corn in the 2024/25 marketing year, compared to 1.1 million tons during the same period last year.
Global Corn Market Influences
In Chicago, December corn futures fell by 0.7% for the week to $162.3 per ton, influenced by favorable weather and active exports from the US. According to USDA data, as of July 28, 30% of US corn crops were in the test stage, 8% higher than the five-year average. The number of corn crops in good or excellent condition increased by 1% to 68%, up from 55% last year.US corn exports for the fiscal year 2023/24 have reached 46.66 million tons, 34% ahead of the previous year's pace. By the end of the season on August 31, exports are expected to significantly exceed the USDA forecast of 47.7 million tons.