Ukrainian Grain Association has reduced its estimate of the potential harvest of grain and oilseed crops in Ukraine this year - by 2.8 million tons.

• The previous forecast was 74.6 million tons, which is also significantly lower than last year figure - 82.8 million tons.
• The current forecast is based on average weather conditions over the past 5 years.
• Another reduction in the harvest forecast for the new season is due to the hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July.
• It had huge negative impact on the yield of late grain and oilseed crops this year.

The reduction in exports compared to the previous season may amount to more than 16 million tons.

In such conditions, analysts believes that the export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in 2024/25 MY will amount to 41 million tons. This is 2.5 million tons lower than the previous forecast. Thus, wheat harvest in 2024 may reach 19.8 million tons. Its potential export in 2024/25 MY is approximately 13 million tons.

Barley production may amount to 4.95 million tons, and potential export - about 2 million tons.

Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season are worsening due to a long dry period. Therefore, the forecast is around 23.4 million tons. This is 2.1 million tons lower than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons lower than last year harvest, which amounted to 29.6 million tons. At the same time, potential grain exports may amount to about 18.5 million tons.

The sunflower harvest is expected to be 12.8 million tons. 12.5 million tons will be processed in Ukraine. Rapeseed production is forecast at 4.3 million tons, and its exports - 3.4 million tons.