Current Decline in Black Sesame Prices

Black sesame prices have already decreased by $0,036 to $0,048 per kilogram due to a market surge. Limited demand in export markets and low domestic consumption are causing prices to decline further. Given the current situation, prices are expected to fall by another $0,024 to $0,036 per kilogram.

• In Saurashtra, daily black sesame yard arrivals are between 700 and 800 bags, while in Rajkot, arrivals range from 300 to 400 bags.
• The rapid market growth for black sesame has increased income, previously limited to 400 to 500 bags per day.
• The price for Z quality black sesame was between $2,04 and $2,11 per kilogram, and $1,86 to $1,95 per kilogram for average quality.
• Prices in Pitha increased by $0,24 to $0,30 per kilogram but are now decreasing by $0,30.

Although black sesame prices surged to $2,22 per kilogram and recently increased to $2,34 to $2,36, there is still potential for further reductions. Gujarat's black sesame stock has risen to 1500 to 2000 tonnes, with 500 to 700 tonnes available for sale when prices are favorable.

Domestic and International Market Insights

New export business could help clear the current black sesame stock, although domestic consumption remains steady. During the monsoon season, heavy rainfall forecasts have minimized black sesame cultivation, reducing sowing activities. Last year, Gujarat produced between 3000 and 5000 tonnes of black sesame, but this year's crop is expected to be smaller.

In Rajasthan, late sowing means black sesame enters the market post-Diwali, but good sowing reports are lacking due to uncertain rainfall. According to Rajni Vithalani, if Korean tender orders and domestic demand increase, prices might rise by $0,06 to $0,12 per kilogram. The market price for Natural Shortx sesame is currently $1,66 per kilogram, with little potential for significant price fluctuation.

Monsoon sesame crops in Gujarat are limited, with a 35 percent decrease in sowing reported in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Combined crop estimates for these states range between 125,000 and 150,000 tonnes, compared to last year's 225,000 to 250,000 tonnes. Gujarat's summer sesame crop is estimated at 10 to 12 thousand tonnes, similar to Madhya Pradesh's stock.

Impact of Brazilian and Pakistani Crops

Brazil and Pakistan are introducing new sesame crops to the global market, performing well in business. Brazilian sesame prices opened at $1,78 per kilogram and have now fallen to $1,58 per kilogram. This year, Brazil is expected to produce 250,000 tonnes, one and a half times more than last year, with 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes likely to enter the Indian market.

Pakistan's monsoon sesame crop is estimated between 400,000 and 450,000 tonnes, with China being the largest buyer due to a free trade agreement. Pakistani sesame prices opened at $1,80 to $1,86 per kilogram and are currently $1,66 to $1,68 per kilogram. There has been no reported damage to the Pakistani crop so far.

India is not expecting sesame imports from other countries except Brazil due to high prices in African countries. Nigeria's new crop will arrive in October-November. Middle Eastern countries are purchasing Sudanese sesame at a premium. Indian market prices for Shortx sesame stand at $1,66 per kilogram. A potential 50 to 60 percent export order from South Korea could impact prices. But current high stocks may prevent significant price changes.

Summary of Current Market Situation

Monsoon sowing is estimated to decrease by 25 to 30 percent in Gujarat and by 15 to 20 percent nationwide due to crop failures. Hulled sesame is in high demand at $2 per kilogram, with strong export demand from Europe, America, and Middle Eastern countries. The export of Hulled sesame is expected to increase by 15 to 20 percent compared to last year. While natural sesame exports may decline. Turmeric exports from India continue to dominate the market, facing little competition.