Cumin Prices in Unjha

Currently, Unjha sees a daily influx of four to five thousand sacks of cumin. Prices have seen significant fluctuations, with the minimum price at $0,25, rising to $0,37 per kg, and now stabilizing around $0,30 per kg. Projections indicate that cumin prices could increase to $0,33-$0,34 per kg in the near future.

Impact of Domestic and Export Demand on Prices

The current market shows sluggish export demand for cumin, while local demand is moderately improving. An uptick in local demand is anticipated post-August 10, potentially driving prices up by $0,18-$0,24 per kg. Export demand remains minimal, particularly from Bangladesh and the Gulf, largely due to the influx of new supplies from China.

Initial projections estimated China’s cumin production at 100,000 tons; however, revised estimates suggest a lower yield of 40,000-50,000 tons, consistent with last year. The price parity between Chinese and Indian cumin, both hovering around $3,15 per kg, discourages imports, as China turns into a significant stockist. India’s globally competitive cumin prices further diminish the likelihood of imports.

Anticipating Market Movements

• The Indian market has received approximately 6.0 to 6.5 million bags of cumin, with an additional 4.0 million bags expected.
• Monthly exports account for 0.15 to 0.2 million bags, while domestic consumption ranges from 0.25 to 0.30 million bags.
• With the new cumin season still eight months away, India requires at least 3.0 million more bags.
• The carry-forward stock is projected to be between 1.5 to 2.0 million bags.

In the previous year, India exported 2.8 to 3.0 million bags of cumin. This year, 2.8 million bags have already been exported, with total exports expected to exceed 0.2 million tonnes, up from 0.16 million tonnes last year.

According to Sumerchand Jain, cumin prices are likely to decrease by $0,12-$0,18 per kg. Currently, the Rajasthan market receives around seven thousand sacks daily. The market’s supply outpaces demand, suggesting a potential price drop. Farmers and traders hold substantial stocks, with limited export inquiries. Should prices remain low, farmers may withhold sales, leading to a possible, though unsustainable, price increase.