Overview of the Current Market

The almond market in India is poised for significant changes in the coming weeks due to a noticeable gap between imports and consumption. Recent reports indicate that the import of almonds, particularly from California—the world’s leading almond producer—has been substantially lower than the domestic demand. This shortfall is expected to impact the prices of almonds and related products, such as almond kernels (badamgiri), in the Indian market.

Stability in Current Prices

Despite the reduced imports, prices for different varieties of almonds and badamgiri have remained stable. According to trade sources, the prices for California almonds and the Gurbandi variety have held steady at their previous levels. This stability is attributed to sluggish buying by stockists in local wholesale markets. Additionally, badamgiri, both California and Gurbandi varieties, have also maintained their previous price points, with only minor declines noted recently. This trend reflects the cautious approach of traders, who are awaiting further developments in the global almond market before making significant purchases.

Low Imports Due to End of U.S. Almond Season

One of the key factors contributing to the lower imports is the end of the almond season in California. The state, which is the largest producer of almonds globally, is transitioning to its new crop season. Trade sources suggest that the latest import figures are significantly below the average monthly consumption in India. Typically, India consumes around 850-900 containers of almonds each month. However, only 610 containers were imported last month, representing a reduction of approximately one-third compared to usual consumption levels. This shortfall has raised concerns among traders and is expected to influence market sentiment in the near future.

Anticipated Increase in U.S. Almond Production

The upcoming almond season in California is expected to bring a significant increase in production. According to estimates from the Californian Almond Board (CAB), the 2024 season is projected to yield 2.80 billion pounds of almonds, a 13% increase from the 2.47 billion pounds produced in the 2023 season. This anticipated rise in production could stabilize global almond supplies. However, the initial impact on the Indian market may still see price increases due to the current gap between imports and demand, as well as uncertainties regarding the quality of the new crop.

Seasonal Factors and Market Expectations

Seasonal factors also influence the Indian almond market. Currently, almond sales are subdued as it is not a peak consumption period. However, with Diwali, a major festival in India, approaching in a few months, there is an expected surge in demand. In recent years, consumers have increasingly favored gifting dry fruits, including almonds, over traditional sweets during festive occasions. This shift in consumer preferences could lead to a spike in almond sales as the festival season draws near. Given the approaching new almond season in the U.S., it is anticipated that imports to India may remain low in the short term. Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, especially with uncertainties surrounding the quality of the upcoming crop. As a result, the market could experience a rise in almond prices and related products in the coming days.

The Indian almond market is at a critical juncture, with lower-than-usual imports creating a potential for price increases in the near future. The expected rise in U.S. almond production may eventually stabilize supplies, but immediate market conditions suggest that prices could trend upward, particularly as the festive season approaches. Exporters and traders should closely monitor these developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.