Overview of the Big Cardamom Market

The big cardamom market is currently facing a challenging period, with prospects for price increases weakening. Despite concerns over potential crop damage in major producing regions like Assam due to heavy rains and floods, both spot and auction prices have started to decline. The arrival of the first crop is imminent, and the likelihood of a significant price rise in the coming days appears slim.

Impact of Adverse Weather on Crop Yield

Severe weather conditions in Assam and other northeastern states, including Meghalaya, have raised concerns about the upcoming big cardamom crop. Floods and excessive rainfall have affected these regions, leading to expectations of substantial crop damage. This adverse weather, coupled with high temperatures during the crop's growth phase, has led to predictions of a 60-70 percent loss in the yield of big cardamom this season. Additionally, the crop has suffered from pest infestations, further exacerbating the situation. As a result, the availability of big cardamom in the domestic market is expected to be significantly lower than normal.

Decline in Market Prices

The impact of these factors is already evident in the market. Following a brief increase, the price of Kainchi Cut big cardamom in the local wholesale market has dropped. This decline is primarily due to weak sales, which have failed to pick up despite the anticipated crop losses. The import price of big cardamom is currently higher than usual, reflecting the tight supply situation.

Export Performance

Despite the challenges in production, India's big cardamom exports have shown a positive trend. In the first two months of the 2024-25 financial year, India exported 302.37 tonnes of big cardamom. This marks a significant increase from the same period the previous year when 184.84 tonnes were exported. However, with the weakening price prospects, the future of export performance remains uncertain.

The big cardamom market is currently in a precarious position. The combination of adverse weather, pest infestations, and weak sales has led to a decline in both spot and auction prices. While crop losses are expected to be significant, the market has not responded to the anticipated price increases, leading to a challenging outlook for exporters. The prospects for a rise in big cardamom prices appear limited in the near term, with market conditions likely to remain subdued.